Natural disaster risk in Virginia, by county

All 133 counties in Virginia, ranked by FEMA's National Risk Index composite risk score, with each one's highest-rated hazard. Other states

At a glance

0
Very high risk
1
Relatively high risk
5
Relatively moderate risk
42
Relatively low risk
85
Very low risk

Highest overall risk: Fairfax County (relatively high, score 94.7). Lowest: Falls Church City (very low, score 1.6).

Top hazards in Virginia

HazardCounties rated relatively high or very highAverage score
Drought20 of 13366.8
Strong wind10 of 13342.1
Lightning8 of 13341.1
Winter weather7 of 13337.3
Coastal flooding2 of 13351.1

All counties, highest risk first

#CountyOverall riskHighest-rated hazard
1 Fairfax County Relatively high 94.7 Winter weather (very high)
2 Chesterfield County Relatively moderate 84.8 Winter weather (relatively high)
3 Henrico County Relatively moderate 83.4 Lightning (relatively high)
4 Prince William County Relatively moderate 83.2 Lightning (relatively high)
5 Norfolk City Relatively moderate 81.2 Lightning (relatively high)
6 Accomack County Relatively moderate 81 Coastal flooding (very high)
7 Chesapeake City Relatively low 80.9 Hurricane (relatively moderate)
8 Richmond City Relatively low 78.4 Earthquake (relatively moderate)
9 Albemarle County Relatively low 78.1 Strong wind (relatively high)
10 Loudoun County Relatively low 78.1 Winter weather (relatively high)
11 Rockingham County Relatively low 75 Inland (riverine) flooding (relatively moderate)
12 Alexandria City Relatively low 73.7 Strong wind (relatively high)
13 Roanoke City Relatively low 72.9 Strong wind (relatively high)
14 Newport News City Relatively low 72.2 Winter weather (relatively high)
15 Augusta County Relatively low 68.6 Landslide (relatively moderate)
16 Danville City Relatively low 68 Inland (riverine) flooding (relatively moderate)
17 Arlington County Relatively low 66.8 Lightning (relatively high)
18 Stafford County Relatively low 65 Strong wind (relatively moderate)
19 Pittsylvania County Relatively low 63.8 Inland (riverine) flooding (relatively moderate)
20 Henry County Relatively low 63.6 Inland (riverine) flooding (relatively moderate)
21 Hampton City Relatively low 61.7 Hurricane (relatively moderate)
22 Tazewell County Relatively low 60.2 Landslide (relatively moderate)
23 Suffolk City Relatively low 60.1 Drought (relatively high)
24 Shenandoah County Relatively low 59.8 Strong wind (relatively moderate)
25 Virginia Beach City Relatively low 57.9 Lightning (relatively high)
26 Smyth County Relatively low 57.8 Cold wave (relatively high)
27 Lee County Relatively low 57.3 Landslide (relatively moderate)
28 Mecklenburg County Relatively low 54.3 Drought (relatively high)
29 Portsmouth City Relatively low 54 Hurricane (relatively moderate)
30 Hanover County Relatively low 53.5 Drought (relatively high)
31 James City County Relatively low 53.3 Drought (relatively moderate)
32 Spotsylvania County Relatively low 52.9 Lightning (relatively moderate)
33 Roanoke County Relatively low 52.2 Landslide (relatively moderate)
34 Bedford County Relatively low 51.2 Lightning (relatively moderate)
35 Buchanan County Relatively low 50.6 Landslide (relatively moderate)
36 Wise County Relatively low 50.4 Landslide (relatively moderate)
37 Lynchburg City Relatively low 49.3 Strong wind (relatively moderate)
38 Wythe County Relatively low 48.7 Cold wave (relatively moderate)
39 Fauquier County Relatively low 47.7 Lightning (relatively moderate)
40 Montgomery County Relatively low 47.5 Landslide (relatively moderate)
41 Halifax County Relatively low 47 Drought (relatively high)
42 Washington County Relatively low 46.6 Landslide (relatively moderate)
43 Culpeper County Relatively low 46.2 Drought (relatively moderate)
44 Pulaski County Relatively low 45.9 Landslide (relatively moderate)
45 Carroll County Relatively low 45.1 Cold wave (relatively high)
46 Frederick County Relatively low 44.7 Drought (relatively moderate)
47 York County Relatively low 44.7 Hurricane (relatively moderate)
48 Northampton County Relatively low 44.5 Drought (relatively high)
49 Franklin County Very low 42.7 Strong wind (relatively moderate)
50 Scott County Very low 42 Landslide (relatively moderate)
51 Northumberland County Very low 40 Strong wind (relatively high)
52 Alleghany County Very low 38.1 Strong wind (relatively high)
53 Isle of Wight County Very low 37.9 Drought (relatively high)
54 Page County Very low 37.9 Drought (relatively moderate)
55 Westmoreland County Very low 37.4 Hurricane (relatively moderate)
56 Russell County Very low 36.5 Landslide (relatively moderate)
57 Nelson County Very low 34.1 Drought (relatively moderate)
58 Rockbridge County Very low 33.3 Landslide (relatively moderate)
59 Prince Edward County Very low 32.4 Drought (relatively high)
60 Lancaster County Very low 32.3 Drought (relatively high)
61 Louisa County Very low 32.2 Lightning (relatively moderate)
62 Campbell County Very low 32 Lightning (relatively moderate)
63 Warren County Very low 31.6 Landslide (relatively low)
64 Southampton County Very low 29.8 Drought (relatively moderate)
65 Nottoway County Very low 29 Drought (relatively high)
66 Brunswick County Very low 28.1 Drought (relatively high)
67 Harrisonburg City Very low 26.6 Strong wind (relatively moderate)
68 Orange County Very low 25.6 Drought (relatively moderate)
69 Grayson County Very low 24.7 Landslide (relatively moderate)
70 Charlottesville City Very low 24.3 Strong wind (relatively high)
71 Middlesex County Very low 23.8 Hurricane (relatively moderate)
72 Gloucester County Very low 22.6 Drought (relatively moderate)
73 Powhatan County Very low 21.1 Drought (relatively high)
74 Amherst County Very low 21 Strong wind (relatively moderate)
75 Patrick County Very low 20.9 Landslide (relatively low)
76 Caroline County Very low 20.7 Drought (relatively moderate)
77 Lunenburg County Very low 19.8 Drought (relatively high)
78 Cumberland County Very low 19.7 Drought (relatively high)
79 Dinwiddie County Very low 19.3 Drought (relatively high)
80 Buckingham County Very low 19 Drought (relatively moderate)
81 Essex County Very low 18.6 Drought (relatively high)
82 Salem City Very low 18.6 Inland (riverine) flooding (relatively low)
83 Botetourt County Very low 18.1 Landslide (relatively low)
84 Dickenson County Very low 17.9 Landslide (relatively moderate)
85 Greensville County Very low 17.8 Drought (relatively high)
86 Charlotte County Very low 17.4 Drought (relatively high)
87 Hopewell City Very low 17.2 Hurricane (relatively low)
88 Petersburg City Very low 17 Hurricane (relatively low)
89 Winchester City Very low 16.9 Hurricane (relatively low)
90 Giles County Very low 16.6 Landslide (relatively moderate)
91 Manassas City Very low 16.6 Hurricane (relatively low)
92 King and Queen County Very low 16.2 Drought (relatively high)
93 Goochland County Very low 15.5 Drought (relatively moderate)
94 New Kent County Very low 14.1 Drought (relatively moderate)
95 Prince George County Very low 13.9 Drought (relatively moderate)
96 Fluvanna County Very low 13.5 Earthquake (relatively low)
97 Sussex County Very low 13.2 Drought (relatively moderate)
98 Bland County Very low 13 Landslide (relatively low)
99 King George County Very low 12.8 Hurricane (relatively low)
100 Mathews County Very low 12.2 Coastal flooding (relatively moderate)
101 Amelia County Very low 12 Drought (relatively high)
102 Staunton City Very low 10.6 Hurricane (relatively low)
103 Richmond County Very low 10.4 Drought (relatively moderate)
104 Waynesboro City Very low 10.3 Hurricane (relatively low)
105 Covington City Very low 9.7 Strong wind (relatively moderate)
106 Martinsville City Very low 9.6 Earthquake (relatively low)
107 Charles City County Very low 9.3 Drought (relatively high)
108 Greene County Very low 9.3 Hurricane (relatively low)
109 Fredericksburg City Very low 8.7 Lightning (relatively moderate)
110 Bristol City Very low 8.6 Earthquake (relatively low)
111 Madison County Very low 8.4 Hurricane (relatively low)
112 King William County Very low 8.3 Drought (relatively moderate)
113 Franklin City Very low 7.5 Hurricane (relatively low)
114 Clarke County Very low 6.9 Drought (relatively moderate)
115 Rappahannock County Very low 6.9 Drought (relatively low)
116 Galax City Very low 6.8 Cold wave (relatively low)
117 Floyd County Very low 6.6 Drought (relatively moderate)
118 Craig County Very low 6.2 Landslide (relatively low)
119 Colonial Heights City Very low 6 Hurricane (relatively low)
120 Bath County Very low 5.4 Lightning (relatively moderate)
121 Fairfax City Very low 5.3 Hurricane (relatively low)
122 Appomattox County Very low 5.1 Hurricane (relatively low)
123 Emporia City Very low 5 Hurricane (relatively low)
124 Manassas Park City Very low 4.9 Heat wave (relatively low)
125 Surry County Very low 4.7 Drought (relatively moderate)
126 Lexington City Very low 3.7 Lightning (relatively low)
127 Buena Vista City Very low 3.3 Lightning (relatively low)
128 Radford City Very low 2.6 Cold wave (relatively low)
129 Highland County Very low 2.5 Landslide (relatively low)
130 Poquoson City Very low 2.4 Coastal flooding (relatively moderate)
131 Williamsburg City Very low 2.4 Hurricane (relatively low)
132 Falls Church City Very low 1.6 Lightning (relatively low)
133 Norton City Very low 1.6 Cold wave (relatively low)

How to read these ratings

  • Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
  • Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
  • Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
  • Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
  • Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
  • Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
  • "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).

About this data

Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.

Questions

Which county in Virginia has the highest natural disaster risk?

Fairfax County has the highest composite risk score in Virginia in FEMA's National Risk Index: 94.7, rated relatively high.

Which county in Virginia has the lowest natural disaster risk?

Falls Church City has the lowest composite risk score in Virginia: 1.6, rated very low. A low score means lower modelled risk compared with other US counties, not no risk.

What natural disasters is Virginia most at risk from?

Across Virginia, the hazards rated highest in the most counties are drought, strong wind, lightning, according to FEMA's National Risk Index. Each county page lists all 18 hazards.

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