Is a hurricane forming right now?

NHC is watching one area for possible tropical cyclone formation. The highest chance is 90% in the next 7 days, for South of Southern Mexico (EP94). The National Hurricane Center issues this outlook every six hours for the Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Gulf of America and the eastern and central North Pacific. A chance of formation is not a forecast of where a storm will go or how strong it will be; that comes in NHC's advisories once a storm has formed.

What do low, medium and high mean in the tropical outlook?

They are NHC's own categories for the chance that a disturbance becomes a tropical depression or storm: low is less than 40 percent, medium is 40 to 60 percent, and high is more than 60 percent, for the next 48 hours and for the next 7 days.

Tropical cyclone outlook

Q: Does this cover typhoons and cyclones in Asia and Australia?

No. NHC forecasts the Atlantic and the eastern and central North Pacific. The western Pacific, the North Indian Ocean and the southern hemisphere are forecast by other agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency, the India Meteorological Department and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Where the National Hurricane Center is watching for a tropical cyclone to form, and how likely it thinks formation is in the next 2 and 7 days. Covers the Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Gulf of America and the eastern and central North Pacific.

NHC outlook of 19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

NHC is watching one area for possible tropical cyclone formation. The highest chance is 90% in the next 7 days, for South of Southern Mexico (EP94).

A chance of formation is not a forecast of where a storm will go or how strong it will be. That comes from NHC's advisories once a storm has formed.

Storms that have already formed

NHC is issuing advisories on this storm. Each page has NHC's forecast of where it will go and how strong it will get.

Tropical Storm Trudy — 50 kt sustained winds · Eastern Pacific · updated 19 Oct 15:00 UTC

Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of America

This part of the outlook could not be read just now.

Eastern North Pacific

Active now: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Trudy, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of west-central Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP94)

Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Guatemala, remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico.

Chance of formation in the next 48 hours: 60% (medium) · in the next 7 days: 90% (high)

Issued 1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026.

Central North Pacific

Active now: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Trudy, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of west-central Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

NHC does not expect a tropical cyclone to form here in the next 7 days.

Issued 800 AM HST Mon Oct 19 2026.

Everywhere else

NHC forecasts only the waters above. Typhoons in the western Pacific, cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and storms in the southern hemisphere are forecast by other agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency, the India Meteorological Department and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A quiet outlook here says nothing about those oceans.

From the U.S. National Hurricane Center. NHC's outlook page has the maps.