Natural disaster risk in Carroll County, Virginia
Virginia · population 29,155 · FIPS 51035
Overall: relatively low risk
Carroll County has a composite risk score of 45.1 out of 100 — higher than 45% of US counties. It ranks 45 of 133 in Virginia (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are cold wave, landslide, drought.
Drought now: No, but abnormally dry (D0)
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 35.71% of Carroll County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
Drought in Carroll County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 45.1 |
| Expected annual loss About $9.9 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 34.9 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very high 81.8 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 16.2 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Carroll County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Cold wave | Relatively high 89 |
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 92 |
| Drought | Relatively low 62 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 61 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 56 |
| Lightning | Relatively low 49 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 43 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 42 |
| Hail | Relatively low 37 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 34 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 30 |
| Avalanche | Very low 56 |
| Wildfire | Very low 55 |
| Earthquake | Very low 47 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Heat wave | No rating |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Carroll County
Federal declarations that designated Carroll County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Carroll County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm), declared 23 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3631-VA | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 23 Jan 2026 | No |
| DR-4863-VA | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding | 4 Apr 2025 | No |
| DR-4831-VA | Major disaster | Tropical Storm Helene | 1 Oct 2024 | Yes |
| EM-3621-VA | Emergency | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene | 29 Sep 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Virginia, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Carroll County, Virginia?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Carroll County as relatively low, with a score of 45.1 out of 100 (higher than 45% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Carroll County?
The hazards rated highest for Carroll County are cold wave (relatively high), landslide (relatively moderate), drought (relatively low).
What is the flood risk in Carroll County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Carroll County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Carroll County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Carroll County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm), declared 23 Jan 2026.
Is Carroll County in a drought?
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 35.71% of Carroll County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
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