Natural disaster risk in Page County, Virginia
Virginia · population 23,698 · FIPS 51139
Overall: very low risk
Page County has a composite risk score of 37.9 out of 100 — higher than 37% of US counties. It ranks 54 of 133 in Virginia (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are drought, strong wind, hurricane.
Drought now: No, but abnormally dry (D0)
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 81.28% of Page County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
Drought in Page County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Very low 37.9 |
| Expected annual loss About $9.6 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 33.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 66.4 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively low 37.2 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Page County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively moderate 65 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 58 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 77 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 75 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 56 |
| Hail | Relatively low 38 |
| Lightning | Relatively low 36 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 31 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 28 |
| Avalanche | Very low 62 |
| Wildfire | Very low 53 |
| Earthquake | Very low 43 |
| Heat wave | Very low 35 |
| Tornado | Very low 18 |
| Ice storm | Very low 15 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Page County
Federal declarations that designated Page County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Page County has been named in 2 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm), declared 23 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3631-VA | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 23 Jan 2026 | No |
| DR-4863-VA | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding | 4 Apr 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Virginia, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Page County, Virginia?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Page County as very low, with a score of 37.9 out of 100 (higher than 37% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Page County?
The hazards rated highest for Page County are drought (relatively moderate), strong wind (relatively moderate), hurricane (relatively low).
What is the flood risk in Page County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Page County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Page County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Page County has been named in 2 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm), declared 23 Jan 2026.
Is Page County in a drought?
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 81.28% of Page County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
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