Natural disaster risk in Arlington County, Virginia
Virginia · population 238,619 · FIPS 51013
Overall: relatively low risk
Arlington County has a composite risk score of 66.8 out of 100 — higher than 66% of US counties. It ranks 17 of 133 in Virginia (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are lightning, heat wave, winter weather.
Drought now: No, but abnormally dry (D0)
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Arlington County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
Drought in Arlington County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 66.8 |
| Expected annual loss About $37.8 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 78.5 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very low 10.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 64.4 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Arlington County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively high 82 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 89 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 84 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 81 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 73 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 80 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 73 |
| Hail | Relatively low 64 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 54 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 44 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 30 |
| Coastal flooding | Very low 41 |
| Landslide | Very low 20 |
| Drought | Very low 17 |
| Wildfire | Very low 5 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Arlington County
Federal declarations that designated Arlington County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Arlington County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm), declared 23 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3631-VA | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 23 Jan 2026 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Virginia, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Arlington County, Virginia?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Arlington County as relatively low, with a score of 66.8 out of 100 (higher than 66% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Arlington County?
The hazards rated highest for Arlington County are lightning (relatively high), heat wave (relatively moderate), winter weather (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Arlington County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Arlington County as relatively moderate, and coastal flooding risk as very low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Arlington County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Arlington County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm), declared 23 Jan 2026.
Is Arlington County in a drought?
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Arlington County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
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