Natural disaster risk in Montgomery County, Virginia
Virginia · population 99,701 · FIPS 51121
Overall: relatively low risk
Montgomery County has a composite risk score of 47.5 out of 100 — higher than 47% of US counties. It ranks 40 of 133 in Virginia (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are landslide, cold wave, winter weather.
Drought now: No, but abnormally dry (D0)
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 66.98% of Montgomery County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
Drought in Montgomery County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 47.5 |
| Expected annual loss About $16.6 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 54.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 26.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 56.6 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Montgomery County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 90 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 69 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 68 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 58 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 73 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 63 |
| Drought | Relatively low 56 |
| Hail | Relatively low 42 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 39 |
| Avalanche | Very low 57 |
| Hurricane | Very low 57 |
| Wildfire | Very low 36 |
| Ice storm | Very low 26 |
| Tornado | Very low 23 |
| Heat wave | Very low 2 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Montgomery County
Federal declarations that designated Montgomery County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Montgomery County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm), declared 23 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3631-VA | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 23 Jan 2026 | No |
| DR-4863-VA | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding | 4 Apr 2025 | No |
| DR-4831-VA | Major disaster | Tropical Storm Helene | 1 Oct 2024 | Yes |
| EM-3621-VA | Emergency | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene | 29 Sep 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Virginia, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Montgomery County, Virginia?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Montgomery County as relatively low, with a score of 47.5 out of 100 (higher than 47% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Montgomery County?
The hazards rated highest for Montgomery County are landslide (relatively moderate), cold wave (relatively moderate), winter weather (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Montgomery County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Montgomery County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Montgomery County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Montgomery County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm), declared 23 Jan 2026.
Is Montgomery County in a drought?
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 66.98% of Montgomery County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
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