Natural disaster risk in Tennessee, by county
All 95 counties in Tennessee, ranked by FEMA's National Risk Index composite risk score, with each one's highest-rated hazard. Other states
At a glance
0
Very high risk
2
Relatively high risk
12
Relatively moderate risk
50
Relatively low risk
31
Very low risk
Highest overall risk: Shelby County (relatively high, score 99.4). Lowest: Van Buren County (very low, score 2.7).
Top hazards in Tennessee
| Hazard | Counties rated relatively high or very high | Average score |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning | 19 of 95 | 58.9 |
| Strong wind | 15 of 95 | 60.8 |
| Ice storm | 13 of 95 | 53.2 |
| Tornado | 12 of 95 | 66.4 |
| Cold wave | 10 of 95 | 67.2 |
All counties, highest risk first
| # | County | Overall risk | Highest-rated hazard |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shelby County | Relatively high 99.4 | Cold wave (very high) |
| 2 | Davidson County | Relatively high 97.2 | Earthquake (relatively high) |
| 3 | Hamilton County | Relatively moderate 93.3 | Tornado (relatively high) |
| 4 | Knox County | Relatively moderate 92.1 | Lightning (very high) |
| 5 | Madison County | Relatively moderate 92.1 | Earthquake (relatively high) |
| 6 | Rutherford County | Relatively moderate 91.7 | Winter weather (very high) |
| 7 | Sumner County | Relatively moderate 87.7 | Tornado (relatively high) |
| 8 | Montgomery County | Relatively moderate 87.4 | Cold wave (relatively high) |
| 9 | Dyer County | Relatively moderate 86.6 | Ice storm (relatively high) |
| 10 | Gibson County | Relatively moderate 85.9 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 11 | Williamson County | Relatively moderate 85.1 | Cold wave (relatively high) |
| 12 | Henry County | Relatively moderate 84.7 | Cold wave (relatively high) |
| 13 | Obion County | Relatively moderate 81.3 | Ice storm (relatively high) |
| 14 | Tipton County | Relatively moderate 81 | Tornado (relatively high) |
| 15 | Wilson County | Relatively low 80 | Winter weather (relatively high) |
| 16 | Maury County | Relatively low 79.3 | Tornado (relatively high) |
| 17 | Sevier County | Relatively low 77.4 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 18 | Fayette County | Relatively low 76 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 19 | Blount County | Relatively low 74.2 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 20 | Weakley County | Relatively low 74 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 21 | Bradley County | Relatively low 73.4 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 22 | Anderson County | Relatively low 73.2 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 23 | Carroll County | Relatively low 72.8 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 24 | Lauderdale County | Relatively low 71.6 | Ice storm (relatively high) |
| 25 | Sullivan County | Relatively low 71.5 | Strong wind (relatively high) |
| 26 | Hardin County | Relatively low 70.7 | Landslide (relatively high) |
| 27 | Lawrence County | Relatively low 69.7 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 28 | Bedford County | Relatively low 69.2 | Cold wave (relatively moderate) |
| 29 | Roane County | Relatively low 69 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 30 | Loudon County | Relatively low 68.4 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 31 | Cumberland County | Relatively low 67.2 | Winter weather (relatively high) |
| 32 | Putnam County | Relatively low 65.8 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 33 | Haywood County | Relatively low 64.7 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 34 | Coffee County | Relatively low 63.5 | Tornado (relatively moderate) |
| 35 | Warren County | Relatively low 63.5 | Tornado (relatively moderate) |
| 36 | Carter County | Relatively low 63.2 | Strong wind (relatively high) |
| 37 | Henderson County | Relatively low 63.1 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 38 | Hardeman County | Relatively low 63 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 39 | Washington County | Relatively low 61.2 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 40 | Giles County | Relatively low 60.9 | Strong wind (relatively high) |
| 41 | Monroe County | Relatively low 60.9 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 42 | Robertson County | Relatively low 60.4 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 43 | McMinn County | Relatively low 60.2 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 44 | Lincoln County | Relatively low 58.9 | Tornado (relatively moderate) |
| 45 | Marion County | Relatively low 58.2 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 46 | Campbell County | Relatively low 58 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 47 | Franklin County | Relatively low 57.5 | Cold wave (relatively moderate) |
| 48 | Greene County | Relatively low 56.3 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 49 | Hawkins County | Relatively low 55.8 | Landslide (relatively high) |
| 50 | Cocke County | Relatively low 54.5 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 51 | Dickson County | Relatively low 53.5 | Tornado (relatively moderate) |
| 52 | Crockett County | Relatively low 52.6 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 53 | McNairy County | Relatively low 50.5 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 54 | Rhea County | Relatively low 49.2 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 55 | Humphreys County | Relatively low 48.3 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 56 | Lake County | Relatively low 47.8 | Earthquake (relatively moderate) |
| 57 | Hickman County | Relatively low 47.2 | Tornado (relatively moderate) |
| 58 | Hamblen County | Relatively low 47.1 | Lightning (relatively moderate) |
| 59 | Cheatham County | Relatively low 46.3 | Ice storm (relatively moderate) |
| 60 | Marshall County | Relatively low 45.4 | Tornado (relatively moderate) |
| 61 | Jefferson County | Relatively low 44.9 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 62 | Chester County | Relatively low 44.5 | Cold wave (relatively moderate) |
| 63 | Wayne County | Relatively low 43 | Tornado (relatively moderate) |
| 64 | Claiborne County | Relatively low 42.8 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 65 | Sequatchie County | Very low 40.2 | Cold wave (relatively moderate) |
| 66 | Benton County | Very low 39.1 | Cold wave (relatively moderate) |
| 67 | White County | Very low 38.5 | Winter weather (relatively moderate) |
| 68 | Decatur County | Very low 38.4 | Cold wave (relatively moderate) |
| 69 | Macon County | Very low 34.6 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 70 | Grundy County | Very low 34.3 | Cold wave (relatively moderate) |
| 71 | Perry County | Very low 33.4 | Earthquake (relatively low) |
| 72 | Polk County | Very low 31.2 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 73 | Stewart County | Very low 29.4 | Lightning (relatively moderate) |
| 74 | Fentress County | Very low 28.4 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 75 | Johnson County | Very low 28.2 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 76 | Scott County | Very low 26.1 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 77 | DeKalb County | Very low 25.5 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 78 | Bledsoe County | Very low 24.1 | Cold wave (relatively moderate) |
| 79 | Cannon County | Very low 22.9 | Tornado (relatively low) |
| 80 | Jackson County | Very low 22.5 | Landslide (relatively low) |
| 81 | Overton County | Very low 22.2 | Lightning (relatively high) |
| 82 | Morgan County | Very low 19.1 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 83 | Smith County | Very low 18.8 | Tornado (relatively low) |
| 84 | Grainger County | Very low 18.6 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 85 | Lewis County | Very low 13.9 | Earthquake (relatively low) |
| 86 | Clay County | Very low 13.3 | Hail (relatively low) |
| 87 | Houston County | Very low 13.1 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 88 | Union County | Very low 12.9 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 89 | Meigs County | Very low 12.7 | Strong wind (relatively moderate) |
| 90 | Hancock County | Very low 11.9 | Landslide (relatively moderate) |
| 91 | Unicoi County | Very low 10.6 | Landslide (relatively low) |
| 92 | Moore County | Very low 9.9 | Tornado (relatively low) |
| 93 | Trousdale County | Very low 6.1 | Cold wave (relatively low) |
| 94 | Pickett County | Very low 4.6 | Cold wave (relatively low) |
| 95 | Van Buren County | Very low 2.7 | Landslide (relatively low) |
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
Which county in Tennessee has the highest natural disaster risk?
Shelby County has the highest composite risk score in Tennessee in FEMA's National Risk Index: 99.4, rated relatively high.
Which county in Tennessee has the lowest natural disaster risk?
Van Buren County has the lowest composite risk score in Tennessee: 2.7, rated very low. A low score means lower modelled risk compared with other US counties, not no risk.
What natural disasters is Tennessee most at risk from?
Across Tennessee, the hazards rated highest in the most counties are lightning, strong wind, ice storm, according to FEMA's National Risk Index. Each county page lists all 18 hazards.
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