Natural disaster risk in Shelby County, Tennessee
Tennessee · population 929,552 · FIPS 47157
Overall: relatively high risk
Shelby County has a composite risk score of 99.4 out of 100 — among the highest 1% of US counties. It ranks 1 of 95 in Tennessee (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are cold wave, tornado, earthquake.
Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 3 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 3.54% of Shelby County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 3 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Shelby County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively high 99.4 |
| Expected annual loss About $554.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively high 99.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 72.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 57.5 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Shelby County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Cold wave | Very high 99 |
| Tornado | Very high 99 |
| Earthquake | Relatively high 99 |
| Heat wave | Relatively high 99 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively high 98 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 96 |
| Ice storm | Relatively high 91 |
| Winter weather | Relatively high 88 |
| Strong wind | Relatively high 87 |
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 92 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 71 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 67 |
| Drought | Relatively low 36 |
| Hail | Very low 12 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Shelby County
Federal declarations that designated Shelby County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Shelby County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm), declared 6 Feb 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4898-TN | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm | 6 Feb 2026 | Yes |
| EM-3635-TN | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| DR-4878-TN | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 19 Jun 2025 | No |
| EM-3625-TN | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 2 Apr 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Tennessee, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Shelby County, Tennessee?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Shelby County as relatively high, with a score of 99.4 out of 100 (among the highest 1% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Shelby County?
The hazards rated highest for Shelby County are cold wave (very high), tornado (very high), earthquake (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Shelby County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Shelby County as relatively high. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Shelby County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Shelby County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm), declared 6 Feb 2026.
Is Shelby County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 3.54% of Shelby County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 3 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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