Natural disaster risk in Fayette County, Tennessee
Tennessee · population 41,886 · FIPS 47047
Overall: relatively low risk
Fayette County has a composite risk score of 76.0 out of 100 — higher than 76% of US counties. It ranks 18 of 95 in Tennessee (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are earthquake, tornado, heat wave.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 3 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Fayette County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 3 weeks in a row.
Drought in Fayette County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 76 |
| Expected annual loss About $29.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 72.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 62.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 50.4 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Fayette County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively moderate 95 |
| Tornado | Relatively moderate 89 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 82 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 78 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 75 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 74 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 68 |
| Drought | Relatively low 58 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 51 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 39 |
| Wildfire | Very low 61 |
| Hurricane | Very low 50 |
| Hail | Very low 25 |
| Winter weather | Very low 12 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Fayette County
Federal declarations that designated Fayette County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Fayette County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm), declared 6 Feb 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4898-TN | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm | 6 Feb 2026 | Yes |
| EM-3635-TN | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| DR-4878-TN | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 19 Jun 2025 | No |
| EM-3625-TN | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 2 Apr 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Tennessee, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Fayette County, Tennessee?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Fayette County as relatively low, with a score of 76.0 out of 100 (higher than 76% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Fayette County?
The hazards rated highest for Fayette County are earthquake (relatively moderate), tornado (relatively moderate), heat wave (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Fayette County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Fayette County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Fayette County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Fayette County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm), declared 6 Feb 2026.
Is Fayette County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Fayette County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 3 weeks in a row.
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