Natural disaster risk in Sullivan County, Tennessee
Tennessee · population 158,067 · FIPS 47163
Overall: relatively low risk
Sullivan County has a composite risk score of 71.5 out of 100 — higher than 71% of US counties. It ranks 25 of 95 in Tennessee (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are strong wind, lightning, landslide.
Drought now: No, but abnormally dry (D0)
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 12.16% of Sullivan County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for 49 weeks in a row.
Drought in Sullivan County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 71.5 |
| Expected annual loss About $28.5 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 71.1 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively moderate 44.8 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 40.2 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Sullivan County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively high 86 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 85 |
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 94 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 81 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 87 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 57 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 48 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 47 |
| Hail | Relatively low 35 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 27 |
| Hurricane | Very low 54 |
| Wildfire | Very low 36 |
| Drought | Very low 28 |
| Heat wave | Very low 18 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Sullivan County
Federal declarations that designated Sullivan County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Sullivan County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm), declared 6 Feb 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4898-TN | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm | 6 Feb 2026 | No |
| EM-3635-TN | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| EM-3625-TN | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 2 Apr 2025 | No |
| DR-4832-TN | Major disaster | Tropical Storm Helene | 2 Oct 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Tennessee, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Sullivan County, Tennessee?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Sullivan County as relatively low, with a score of 71.5 out of 100 (higher than 71% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Sullivan County?
The hazards rated highest for Sullivan County are strong wind (relatively high), lightning (relatively high), landslide (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Sullivan County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Sullivan County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Sullivan County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Sullivan County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm), declared 6 Feb 2026.
Is Sullivan County in a drought?
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 12.16% of Sullivan County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for 49 weeks in a row.
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