Winter storm outlook: impacts by state
Which US states could see disruptive winter weather in the next seven days, from the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC): its Winter Storm Severity Index for days 1 to 3, and its probabilistic index for days 4 to 7. Snow, ice and blowing snow are combined into one impact level. Covers the contiguous United States; times are in UTC.
This is an outlook, not a warning — follow your local NWS office. Winter storm watches and warnings in effect now are on US weather alerts by state.
Winter storm, ice storm and blizzard warnings in force now
In force now: 4 winter storm warnings in Alaska (checked 18:55 UTC, 19 Oct 2026).
- Winter storm warnings: 4 in Alaska (4)
- Ice storm warnings: 0
- Blizzard warnings: 0
Warnings from the National Weather Service; a warning covering two states is counted once and listed under both. NWS list read .
The highest winter storm impact WPC forecasts in the next three days is Moderate impacts (level 3 of 5), in 1 state: California (small area). Lower levels reach parts of 7 more.
Highest level over days 1 to 3. Stronger shading = higher level; the number on a state is its level of 5. Hover or tap a state for its level. The table below lists the same states.
Days 1 to 3 at a glance
| State | Highest impact | First reached |
|---|---|---|
| California (small area) | Moderate 3 of 5 | Day 2 (Tue 20 Oct) |
| Colorado | Minor 2 of 5 | Day 3 (Wed 21 Oct) |
| Nevada | Minor 2 of 5 | Day 3 (Wed 21 Oct) |
| Utah | Minor 2 of 5 | Day 3 (Wed 21 Oct) |
| Idaho | Winter Weather Area 1 of 5 | Day 2 (Tue 20 Oct) |
| Wyoming | Winter Weather Area 1 of 5 | Day 1 (Mon 19 Oct) |
| New Mexico (small area) | Winter Weather Area 1 of 5 | Day 1 (Mon 19 Oct) |
| Montana (small area) | Winter Weather Area 1 of 5 | Day 1 (Mon 19 Oct) |
Day by day
Day 1 — Monday 19 October
Valid 19 Oct 16:00 UTC to 20 Oct 12:00 UTC
- Winter Weather Area: Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, California (small area), New Mexico (small area), Montana (small area)
Day 2 — Tuesday 20 October
Valid 20 Oct 12:00 UTC to 21 Oct 12:00 UTC
- Moderate: California (small area)
- Winter Weather Area: Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico (small area), Montana (small area)
Day 3 — Wednesday 21 October
Valid 21 Oct 12:00 UTC to 22 Oct 12:00 UTC
Days 4 to 7: chance of a disruptive storm
The highest chance of at least Moderate impacts (level 3 of 5) in any 24-hour window on days 4 to 7, by state, from the model run of 19 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. A low chance this far ahead means "worth watching", not "expected".
| State | Chance of Moderate or worse | 24-hour window |
|---|---|---|
| California | 20% or more | Thu 22 Oct 12:00 UTC to Fri 23 Oct 12:00 UTC |
| Colorado | 20% or more | Thu 22 Oct 12:00 UTC to Fri 23 Oct 12:00 UTC |
| Idaho | 10% or more | Fri 23 Oct 12:00 UTC to Sat 24 Oct 12:00 UTC |
| Nevada | 10% or more | Thu 22 Oct 12:00 UTC to Fri 23 Oct 12:00 UTC |
| Washington | 10% or more | Sun 25 Oct 00:00 UTC to Mon 26 Oct 00:00 UTC |
| Wyoming | 10% or more | Fri 23 Oct 00:00 UTC to Sat 24 Oct 00:00 UTC |
| Montana | 5% or more | Fri 23 Oct 00:00 UTC to Sat 24 Oct 00:00 UTC |
What the impact levels mean
- Winter Weather Area 1 of 5 — Limited impacts. Winter weather is expected; use caution while travelling.
- Minor 2 of 5 — Minor impacts. Expect a few inconveniences to daily life; drive with caution.
- Moderate 3 of 5 — Moderate impacts. Expect disruptions to daily life; hazardous travel, possible closures; consider changing plans.
- Major 4 of 5 — Major impacts. Expect considerable disruption; dangerous or impossible travel, widespread closures and disruption to services.
- Extreme 5 of 5 — Extreme impacts. Expect substantial disruption; travel extremely dangerous or impossible, extensive closures, life-saving actions may be needed.
The levels describe expected disruption to daily life, not snowfall totals: the same snow depth can be Minor where cities are used to it and Major where they are not. A state is listed when an impact area covers part of it; "small area" means only a small part, such as a corner or a mountain range. For how El Niño and La Niña shape US winters, see the El Niño and La Niña page (NOAA Climate Prediction Center data).
Questions
Is a winter storm forecast this week?
The highest winter storm impact WPC forecasts in the next three days is Moderate impacts (level 3 of 5), in 1 state: California (small area). Lower levels reach parts of 7 more. This comes from the Weather Prediction Center's Winter Storm Severity Index for days 1 to 3 and its probabilistic version for days 4 to 7. It is an outlook, not a warning: follow your local National Weather Service office for winter storm watches and warnings.
What do Minor, Moderate, Major and Extreme winter storm impacts mean?
They are the WSSI's levels of expected disruption, not of snowfall. Winter Weather Area: winter weather expected, use caution. Minor: a few inconveniences. Moderate: disruptions to daily life and hazardous travel. Major: considerable disruption, dangerous or impossible travel. Extreme: substantial disruption, with travel extremely dangerous or impossible and life-saving actions possibly needed.
Does this include ice storms?
Yes. The overall WSSI combines snow amount, snow load on trees and power lines, ice accumulation, blowing snow and other factors, so a freezing-rain event appears here even with little snow. WPC's own maps show each part separately.
Which areas does the winter storm outlook cover?
The contiguous United States. Alaska and Hawaii are not covered by the WSSI. When WPC forecasts no impacts anywhere, this page says so in words; most US winter storms happen between November and March.
From the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center, public domain: Winter Storm Severity Index and probabilistic WSSI. State outlines: US Census Bureau, generalised. Also see the severe weather and tornado outlook.