Severe weather and tornado outlook today
Which US states are in a severe thunderstorm risk area today, tomorrow and on day 3, from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlook, with SPC's chance of a tornado, damaging wind and large hail. Covers the contiguous United States; times are in UTC.
This is an outlook, not a warning — follow your local NWS office. An outlook says where severe storms could develop. Tornado and severe thunderstorm watches and warnings in effect now are on US weather alerts by state.
Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (level 1 of 5) is the highest today (Day 1), in 2 states: Arizona and New Mexico.
No severe thunderstorms are forecast in the contiguous US tomorrow (Day 2). General (non-severe) thunderstorms are possible in parts of 12 states.
Day 1 (today) — Monday 19 October
Issued 19 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC · valid 19 Oct 16:30 UTC to 20 Oct 12:00 UTC · forecaster Guyer/Mosier
Stronger shading = higher level; the number on a state is its level of 5. Faint grey = general thunderstorms only. Hover or tap a state for its level. The table below lists the same states.
| State | Highest risk | Tornado | Damaging wind | Large hail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Marginal 1 of 5 | under 2% | 5% | 5% |
| New Mexico | Marginal 1 of 5 | under 2% | 5% | 5% |
Percentages are SPC's highest chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point anywhere in the state, not a chance for the whole state.
General (non-severe) thunderstorms are also possible in parts of Texas, Colorado and Utah.
Day 2 (tomorrow) — Tuesday 20 October
Issued 19 Oct 2026, 17:14 UTC · valid 20 Oct 12:00 UTC to 21 Oct 12:00 UTC · forecaster Jewell
Stronger shading = higher level; the number on a state is its level of 5. Faint grey = general thunderstorms only. Hover or tap a state for its level. The table below lists the same states.
No severe thunderstorm risk in the contiguous US for day 2 (tomorrow). General (non-severe) thunderstorms are possible in parts of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Idaho, Colorado, California, Wyoming, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Oregon.
Day 3 — Wednesday 21 October
Issued 19 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC · valid 21 Oct 12:00 UTC to 22 Oct 12:00 UTC · forecaster Squitieri
Stronger shading = higher level; the number on a state is its level of 5. Faint grey = general thunderstorms only. Hover or tap a state for its level. The table below lists the same states.
| State | Highest risk | Any severe weather |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Marginal 1 of 5 | 5% |
| New Mexico | Marginal 1 of 5 | 5% |
Percentages are SPC's highest chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point anywhere in the state, not a chance for the whole state.
General (non-severe) thunderstorms are also possible in parts of California, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, Colorado, Texas and Wyoming.
What the risk levels mean
- General thunderstorms — no severe storms expected; lightning and flooding are possible with any thunderstorm.
- Marginal 1 of 5 — Isolated severe thunderstorms possible: limited in how long they last, how widespread and how intense.
- Slight 2 of 5 — Scattered severe storms possible: short-lived or not widespread, with isolated intense storms possible.
- Enhanced 3 of 5 — Numerous severe storms possible: more persistent or widespread, a few intense.
- Moderate 4 of 5 — Widespread severe storms likely: long-lived, widespread and intense.
- High 5 of 5 — Widespread severe storms expected: long-lived, very widespread and particularly intense.
A storm is "severe" in SPC's terms when it produces a tornado, wind gusts of 58 mph or more, or hail one inch across or larger. A state is listed when the outlook area covers part of it; "small area" means only a corner of the state is included.
Questions
Is there a tornado risk today?
Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (level 1 of 5) is the highest today (Day 1), in 2 states: Arizona and New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook gives the chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point, alongside the chances of damaging wind and large hail. This is an outlook, not a warning: follow your local National Weather Service office for watches and warnings.
Is there a tornado watch today?
This page shows the outlook, which comes before any watch. SPC issues a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch a few hours ahead when storms are expected in a specific area, and local NWS offices issue warnings when a storm is happening. Active watches and warnings by state are on this site's US weather alerts page.
What do Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate and High risk mean?
They are SPC's five levels of severe thunderstorm risk. Marginal (1 of 5): isolated severe storms possible. Slight (2): scattered severe storms possible. Enhanced (3): numerous severe storms possible. Moderate (4): widespread severe storms likely. High (5): widespread, long-lived and particularly intense severe storms expected. General thunderstorms means storms are possible but none are expected to be severe.
How often is the severe weather outlook updated?
SPC updates the Day 1 outlook five times a day (around 06, 13, 16:30, 20 and 01 UTC), and Day 2 and Day 3 twice a day. This page reads SPC's data directly and refreshes every 15 minutes; times shown are in UTC.
From the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, public domain. SPC's outlook page has the official maps. State outlines: US Census Bureau, generalised. Also see the winter storm outlook and the tropical cyclone outlook.