Winter outlook 2026–27 by state
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official seasonal outlook for every US state, in words: the chances that winter will be warmer or colder, and wetter or drier, than normal. It is an outlook of chances, not a forecast — it says nothing about any single storm or snow total. Each state page adds what El Niño winters usually bring there and what the three strongest ones measured.
For December to February 2026–27, CPC leans wetter than normal in 30 states and drier in 3; warmer than normal in 38 and colder in 0.
The rest are mostly "equal chances". An outlook of chances, not a forecast, and not a warning. Next CPC update: 19 November 2026.
December to February 2026–27, state by state
Each cell is the state's main lean and CPC's probability band over that part of the state. Open a state for the full wording, the nearer season and its El Niño history.
| State | Temperature | Precipitation | Typical El Niño winter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Leans near normal 33–40% | Leans wetter 33–70% | Wetter, cooler |
| Alaska | Leans warmer 33–60% | Leans drier 33–60% | Warmer |
| Arizona | Equal chances 33% each | Leans wetter 33–60% | Wetter |
| Arkansas | Leans warmer 33–40% | Leans wetter 33–50% | No reliable signal |
| California | Leans warmer 33–50% | Leans wetter 33–60% | Wetter |
| Colorado | Equal chances 33% each | Leans wetter 33–50% | No reliable signal |
| Connecticut | Leans warmer 40–60% | Leans wetter 40–50% | No reliable signal |
| Delaware | Leans warmer 40–50% | Leans wetter 40–60% | No reliable signal |
| District of Columbia | Leans warmer 40–50% | Leans wetter 40–50% | No reliable signal |
| Florida | Leans near normal 33–40% | Leans wetter 50–80% | Wetter, cooler |
| Georgia | Leans near normal 33–40% | Leans wetter 33–80% | Wetter, cooler |
| Hawaii | Equal chances 33% each | Equal chances 33% each | Drier |
| Idaho | Leans warmer 33–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Drier, warmer |
| Illinois | Leans warmer 33–60% | Equal chances 33% each | No reliable signal |
| Indiana | Leans warmer 40–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Drier |
| Iowa | Leans warmer 33–60% | Leans wetter 33–40% | No reliable signal |
| Kansas | Leans warmer 33–40% | Leans wetter 33–50% | No reliable signal |
| Kentucky | Leans warmer 33–50% | Equal chances 33% each | Drier |
| Louisiana | Leans near normal 33–40% | Leans wetter 40–70% | Wetter, cooler |
| Maine | Leans warmer 50–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Warmer |
| Maryland | Leans warmer 40–50% | Leans wetter 33–60% | No reliable signal |
| Massachusetts | Leans warmer 40–60% | Leans wetter 33–50% | No reliable signal |
| Michigan | Leans warmer 50–60% | Leans drier 33–50% | Warmer |
| Minnesota | Leans warmer 40–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Warmer |
| Mississippi | Leans near normal 33–40% | Leans wetter 33–70% | Wetter, cooler |
| Missouri | Leans warmer 33–50% | Leans wetter 33–50% | No reliable signal |
| Montana | Leans warmer 33–60% | Leans drier 33–50% | Drier, warmer |
| Nebraska | Leans warmer 33–50% | Leans wetter 33–50% | No reliable signal |
| Nevada | Equal chances 33% each | Leans wetter 33–50% | No reliable signal |
| New Hampshire | Leans warmer 50–60% | Leans wetter 33–40% | Warmer |
| New Jersey | Leans warmer 40–60% | Leans wetter 40–60% | No reliable signal |
| New Mexico | Equal chances 33% each | Leans wetter 33–50% | Wetter |
| New York | Leans warmer 40–60% | Equal chances 33% each | No reliable signal |
| North Carolina | Leans warmer 33–40% | Leans wetter 33–70% | Wetter, cooler |
| North Dakota | Leans warmer 40–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Warmer |
| Ohio | Leans warmer 40–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Drier |
| Oklahoma | Equal chances 33% each | Leans wetter 40–50% | No reliable signal |
| Oregon | Leans warmer 33–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Drier, warmer |
| Pennsylvania | Leans warmer 40–60% | Leans wetter 33–50% | No reliable signal |
| Rhode Island | Leans warmer 40–60% | Leans wetter 40–50% | No reliable signal |
| South Carolina | Leans warmer 33–40% | Leans wetter 40–80% | Wetter, cooler |
| South Dakota | Leans warmer 33–50% | Equal chances 33% each | Warmer |
| Tennessee | Leans warmer 33–40% | Equal chances 33% each | Drier |
| Texas | Equal chances 33% each | Leans wetter 33–60% | Wetter, cooler |
| Utah | Equal chances 33% each | Equal chances 33% each | No reliable signal |
| Vermont | Leans warmer 50–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Warmer |
| Virginia | Leans warmer 33–50% | Leans wetter 33–60% | No reliable signal |
| Washington | Leans warmer 50–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Drier, warmer |
| West Virginia | Leans warmer 40–60% | Leans wetter 33–50% | Drier |
| Wisconsin | Leans warmer 50–60% | Equal chances 33% each | Warmer |
| Wyoming | Leans warmer 33–40% | Equal chances 33% each | No reliable signal |
CPC also issued November to January 2026–27; each state page shows it.
How to read the outlook
CPC splits the past 30 years of each season into three equal thirds: below, near and above normal. Left alone, each has a 33% chance. "Leans wetter, 40–50%" means CPC's tools shift the odds toward the wettest third; the other outcomes remain possible. "Equal chances" means there is no reason to shift them, not that a normal winter is expected. The "typical El Niño winter" column is NOAA's long-run tendency for the state, not this year's outlook. For the current El Niño, see the El Niño and La Niña page; for storms in the next 7 days, the winter storm outlook.
Questions
What is NOAA's winter outlook for 2026-27?
For December to February 2026–27, CPC leans wetter than normal in 30 states and drier in 3, and warmer than normal in 38 and colder in 0 (counting each state by the lean over most of it). The rest are mostly "equal chances". Each state's page gives the odds in words. The outlook comes from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and is updated on the third Thursday of every month.
Is the winter outlook a forecast of snow or storms?
No. It is an outlook of chances, not a forecast: it gives the probability that the three months as a whole will be above, near or below normal for temperature and precipitation. It says nothing about any single storm or a snow total. For storms in the next 7 days, see the winter storm outlook; for warnings, your local National Weather Service office.
What does "equal chances" mean?
CPC uses "equal chances" where its tools give no reason to favour any outcome: above, near and below normal each keep their usual one-in-three chance. It does not mean a normal winter is expected.
How does El Niño affect US winters?
NOAA says El Niño tends to bring a wetter, cooler winter to the southern US, most reliably along the Gulf Coast, and a milder, often drier one to parts of the north, with a drier Ohio Valley. These are tendencies, not guarantees, and they are stronger in strong events. Each state page shows what the three strongest El Niño winters measured there.
Outlook: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, seasonal (90-day) outlooks, read from the CPC GIS data as served by the NWS map service; public domain. El Niño tendencies: NOAA Climate.gov and NOAA. State outlines: US Census Bureau, generalised.