Alaska winter outlook 2026–27
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official outlook for Alaska: the chances that this winter will be warmer or colder, and wetter or drier, than normal. It is an outlook of chances, not a forecast: it says nothing about any single storm or snow total. Below it, what El Niño winters usually bring to Alaska and what the three strongest ones actually measured there.
CPC leans warmer than normal across most of Alaska: a 33–60% chance of above-normal temperature. The rest of the state is "equal chances".
CPC leans drier than normal across most of Alaska: a 33–60% chance of below-normal precipitation. The rest of the state is "equal chances".
An outlook of chances, not a forecast, and not a warning. Next CPC update: 19 November 2026.
Season by season
| Season | Temperature | Precipitation |
|---|---|---|
| November to January 2026–27 | Leans warmer 33–60%, much of the state | Equal chances 33% each, much of the state |
| December to February 2026–27 (winter) | Leans warmer 33–60%, most of the state | Leans drier 33–60%, most of the state |
November to January 2026–27: how much of Alaska each category covers
Temperature
- Above-normal temperature — 33–60% chance, across much of the state
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across much of the state
Precipitation
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across much of the state
- Below-normal precipitation — 33–50% chance, across much of the state
December to February 2026–27: how much of Alaska each category covers
Temperature
- Above-normal temperature — 33–60% chance, across most of the state
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across much of the state
Precipitation
- Below-normal precipitation — 33–60% chance, across most of the state
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across parts of the state
How to read the outlook
CPC splits the past 30 years of each season into three equal thirds: below, near and above normal. Left alone, each has a 33% chance. A "40–50% chance of above-normal precipitation" means CPC's tools shift the odds toward the wettest third — the other two still remain possible. "Equal chances" means no tool gives a reason to shift them; it does not mean a normal winter is expected. A wetter outlook is not a snow forecast: a mild, wet winter can bring rain instead.
What El Niño winters usually bring to Alaska
NOAA notes that El Niño winters are typically warmer than average over large parts of Alaska, with no well-defined precipitation signal.
NOAA's typical El Niño winter tendency here: Warmer than average, no reliable precipitation signal (Alaska). A tendency across many past events, not a promise for this one. The current state of El Niño, from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index, is on the El Niño and La Niña page.
The three strongest El Niño winters in Alaska (December to February)
| Winter | Average temperature | Precipitation |
|---|---|---|
| 1982–83 | 5.4°F (-1.1°F, colder) | 6.82 in (-1.55 in, drier) |
| 1997–98 | 4.9°F (-1.6°F, colder) | 7.49 in (-0.88 in, drier) |
| 2015–16 | 14.3°F (+7.8°F, warmer) | 6.84 in (-1.53 in, drier) |
| 1991–2020 average | 6.5°F | 8.37 in |
Statewide December–February averages from NOAA NCEI's Climate at a Glance (nClimDiv), compared with the 1991–2020 average of the same series. Three winters are a small sample: they show what happened, not what will. Winters have warmed since the 1980s, so the older ones read colder against a recent average. "Near average" means within 0.5°F, or within a tenth of the average precipitation.
Related
- Winter outlook 2026–27 for every state
- Winter storm outlook, next 7 days (WPC impact levels)
- El Niño and La Niña now (NOAA Oceanic Niño Index)
- Weather alerts in Alaska now
Other states: Wyoming · Alabama · Arizona · Arkansas · California
Questions
Will winter 2026-27 be warmer, colder, wetter or drier than normal in Alaska?
CPC leans warmer than normal across most of Alaska: a 33–60% chance of above-normal temperature. The rest of the state is "equal chances". CPC leans drier than normal across most of Alaska: a 33–60% chance of below-normal precipitation. The rest of the state is "equal chances". That is CPC's outlook for December to February 2026–27. It is an outlook of chances, not a forecast.
What does El Niño usually mean for Alaska's winter?
NOAA notes that El Niño winters are typically warmer than average over large parts of Alaska, with no well-defined precipitation signal. These are tendencies across many past events, not a promise for this winter.
Does the outlook say how much snow Alaska will get?
No. CPC's seasonal outlook gives the chances of a warmer, colder, wetter or drier season than normal, not snowfall or any single storm. A wetter outlook does not mean more snow if the season is also mild. For storms in the next week, use the winter storm outlook and your local NWS office.
When is the winter outlook updated?
CPC issues new seasonal outlooks on the third Thursday of every month; the next is due on 19 November 2026. This page reads them directly and refreshes twice a day.
Outlook: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, seasonal (90-day) outlooks, read from the CPC GIS data as served by the NWS map service; public domain. El Niño tendencies: NOAA Climate.gov (United States El Niño impacts) and NOAA. Past winters: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. State outlines: US Census Bureau, generalised.