Tennessee winter outlook 2026–27
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official outlook for Tennessee: the chances that this winter will be warmer or colder, and wetter or drier, than normal. It is an outlook of chances, not a forecast: it says nothing about any single storm or snow total. Below it, what El Niño winters usually bring to Tennessee and what the three strongest ones actually measured there.
CPC leans warmer than normal across all or nearly all of Tennessee: a 33–40% chance of above-normal temperature.
Across most of Tennessee, CPC gives equal chances of above-, near- and below-normal precipitation (about 33% each). It leans wetter than normal across parts of the state (a 33–40% chance).
An outlook of chances, not a forecast, and not a warning. Next CPC update: 19 November 2026.
Season by season
| Season | Temperature | Precipitation |
|---|---|---|
| November to January 2026–27 | Leans warmer 33–40%, all or nearly all of the state | Leans wetter 33–50%, much of the state |
| December to February 2026–27 (winter) | Leans warmer 33–40%, all or nearly all of the state | Equal chances 33% each, most of the state |
November to January 2026–27: how much of Tennessee each category covers
Temperature
- Above-normal temperature — 33–40% chance, across all or nearly all of the state
- Near-normal temperature — 33–40% chance, across a small part of the state
Precipitation
- Above-normal precipitation — 33–50% chance, across much of the state
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across much of the state
December to February 2026–27: how much of Tennessee each category covers
Temperature
- Above-normal temperature — 33–40% chance, across all or nearly all of the state
Precipitation
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across most of the state
- Above-normal precipitation — 33–40% chance, across parts of the state
How to read the outlook
CPC splits the past 30 years of each season into three equal thirds: below, near and above normal. Left alone, each has a 33% chance. A "40–50% chance of above-normal precipitation" means CPC's tools shift the odds toward the wettest third — the other two still remain possible. "Equal chances" means no tool gives a reason to shift them; it does not mean a normal winter is expected. A wetter outlook is not a snow forecast: a mild, wet winter can bring rain instead.
What El Niño winters usually bring to Tennessee
Tennessee is in the Tennessee Valley, where NOAA associates El Niño with less winter precipitation than average.
NOAA's typical El Niño winter tendency here: no reliable temperature signal, drier than average (Tennessee Valley). A tendency across many past events, not a promise for this one. The current state of El Niño, from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index, is on the El Niño and La Niña page.
The three strongest El Niño winters in Tennessee (December to February)
| Winter | Average temperature | Precipitation |
|---|---|---|
| 1982–83 | 40.9°F (+0.6°F, warmer) | 14.58 in (-0.59 in, near average) |
| 1997–98 | 42.0°F (+1.8°F, warmer) | 13.64 in (-1.53 in, drier) |
| 2015–16 | 42.9°F (+2.6°F, warmer) | 16.45 in (+1.28 in, near average) |
| 1991–2020 average | 40.3°F | 15.17 in |
Statewide December–February averages from NOAA NCEI's Climate at a Glance (nClimDiv), compared with the 1991–2020 average of the same series. Three winters are a small sample: they show what happened, not what will. Winters have warmed since the 1980s, so the older ones read colder against a recent average. "Near average" means within 0.5°F, or within a tenth of the average precipitation.
Related
- Winter outlook 2026–27 for every state
- Winter storm outlook, next 7 days (WPC impact levels)
- El Niño and La Niña now (NOAA Oceanic Niño Index)
- Weather alerts in Tennessee now
Other states: South Carolina · South Dakota · Texas · Utah · Vermont
Questions
Will winter 2026-27 be warmer, colder, wetter or drier than normal in Tennessee?
CPC leans warmer than normal across all or nearly all of Tennessee: a 33–40% chance of above-normal temperature. Across most of Tennessee, CPC gives equal chances of above-, near- and below-normal precipitation (about 33% each). It leans wetter than normal across parts of the state (a 33–40% chance). That is CPC's outlook for December to February 2026–27. It is an outlook of chances, not a forecast.
What does El Niño usually mean for Tennessee's winter?
Tennessee is in the Tennessee Valley, where NOAA associates El Niño with less winter precipitation than average. These are tendencies across many past events, not a promise for this winter.
Does the outlook say how much snow Tennessee will get?
No. CPC's seasonal outlook gives the chances of a warmer, colder, wetter or drier season than normal, not snowfall or any single storm. A wetter outlook does not mean more snow if the season is also mild. For storms in the next week, use the winter storm outlook and your local NWS office.
When is the winter outlook updated?
CPC issues new seasonal outlooks on the third Thursday of every month; the next is due on 19 November 2026. This page reads them directly and refreshes twice a day.
Outlook: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, seasonal (90-day) outlooks, read from the CPC GIS data as served by the NWS map service; public domain. El Niño tendencies: NOAA Climate.gov (United States El Niño impacts) and NOAA. Past winters: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. State outlines: US Census Bureau, generalised.