Hawaii winter outlook 2026–27
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official outlook for Hawaii: the chances that this winter will be warmer or colder, and wetter or drier, than normal. It is an outlook of chances, not a forecast: it says nothing about any single storm or snow total. Below it, what El Niño winters usually bring to Hawaii and what the three strongest ones actually measured there.
CPC gives equal chances of above-, near- and below-normal temperature across Hawaii (about 33% each): the outlook does not lean either way.
CPC gives equal chances of above-, near- and below-normal precipitation across Hawaii (about 33% each): the outlook does not lean either way.
An outlook of chances, not a forecast, and not a warning. Next CPC update: 19 November 2026.
Season by season
| Season | Temperature | Precipitation |
|---|---|---|
| November to January 2026–27 | Equal chances 33% each, all or nearly all of the state | Equal chances 33% each, all or nearly all of the state |
| December to February 2026–27 (winter) | Equal chances 33% each, all or nearly all of the state | Equal chances 33% each, all or nearly all of the state |
November to January 2026–27: how much of Hawaii each category covers
Temperature
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across all or nearly all of the state
Precipitation
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across all or nearly all of the state
December to February 2026–27: how much of Hawaii each category covers
Temperature
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across all or nearly all of the state
Precipitation
- Equal chances — about 33% each way, across all or nearly all of the state
How to read the outlook
CPC splits the past 30 years of each season into three equal thirds: below, near and above normal. Left alone, each has a 33% chance. A "40–50% chance of above-normal precipitation" means CPC's tools shift the odds toward the wettest third — the other two still remain possible. "Equal chances" means no tool gives a reason to shift them; it does not mean a normal winter is expected. A wetter outlook is not a snow forecast: a mild, wet winter can bring rain instead.
What El Niño winters usually bring to Hawaii
NOAA notes that Hawaii often has lower-than-average rainfall from late fall through early spring during El Niño.
NOAA's typical El Niño winter tendency here: no reliable temperature signal, drier than average (Hawaii). A tendency across many past events, not a promise for this one. The current state of El Niño, from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index, is on the El Niño and La Niña page.
NOAA NCEI publishes no statewide December–February series for Hawaii, so past El Niño winters are not shown here.
Related
- Winter outlook 2026–27 for every state
- Winter storm outlook, next 7 days (WPC impact levels)
- El Niño and La Niña now (NOAA Oceanic Niño Index)
- Weather alerts in Hawaii now
Other states: Florida · Georgia · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana
Questions
Will winter 2026-27 be warmer, colder, wetter or drier than normal in Hawaii?
CPC gives equal chances of above-, near- and below-normal temperature across Hawaii (about 33% each): the outlook does not lean either way. CPC gives equal chances of above-, near- and below-normal precipitation across Hawaii (about 33% each): the outlook does not lean either way. That is CPC's outlook for December to February 2026–27. It is an outlook of chances, not a forecast.
What does El Niño usually mean for Hawaii's winter?
NOAA notes that Hawaii often has lower-than-average rainfall from late fall through early spring during El Niño. These are tendencies across many past events, not a promise for this winter.
Does the outlook say how much snow Hawaii will get?
No. CPC's seasonal outlook gives the chances of a warmer, colder, wetter or drier season than normal, not snowfall or any single storm. A wetter outlook does not mean more snow if the season is also mild. For storms in the next week, use the winter storm outlook and your local NWS office.
When is the winter outlook updated?
CPC issues new seasonal outlooks on the third Thursday of every month; the next is due on 19 November 2026. This page reads them directly and refreshes twice a day.
Outlook: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, seasonal (90-day) outlooks, read from the CPC GIS data as served by the NWS map service; public domain. El Niño tendencies: NOAA Climate.gov (United States El Niño impacts) and NOAA. Past winters: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. State outlines: US Census Bureau, generalised.