Will it be a white Christmas?
Real records, not betting odds. For 40 US cities: NOAA's chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Christmas, and what actually happened on every December 25 from 1991 to 2025 at each city's official weather station. For the UK: what the Met Office counts as a white Christmas, and how often it has happened.
The forecast for Christmas 2026
Forecasts reach about 7 days ahead, so nobody can say yet whether there will be snow on Christmas Day 2026. From December 18, 2026 the US city pages show the National Weather Service forecast for Christmas, and the UK pages link the Met Office forecast.
United States
NOAA counts a white Christmas when at least 1 inch of snow is on the ground on December 25.
| City | NOAA chance, 1991–2020 normals | 1 inch on the ground on December 25, 1991 to 2025 | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis MN | 74% | 27 of 35 years | 2025 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 48% | 18 of 35 years | 2022 |
| Detroit MI | 35% | 12 of 35 years | 2022 |
| Denver CO | 34% | 13 of 35 years | 2022 |
| Chicago IL | 34% | 12 of 33 years | 2022 |
| Pittsburgh PA | 31% | 10 of 35 years | 2022 |
| Indianapolis IN | 26% | 8 of 35 years | 2022 |
| Columbus OH | 23% | 9 of 35 years | 2022 |
| Kansas City MO | 20% | 9 of 35 years | 2022 |
| Cincinnati OH | 17% | 7 of 35 years | 2022 |
| St. Louis MO | 17% | 8 of 35 years | 2022 |
| New York City NY | 13% | 2 of 29 years | 2024 |
| Louisville KY | 9.4% | 5 of 35 years | 2022 |
| Philadelphia PA | 9.3% | 3 of 35 years | 2009 |
| Baltimore MD | 7.1% | 2 of 35 years | 2009 |
| Richmond VA | 5.5% | 1 of 34 years | 2009 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 5.0% | 2 of 35 years | 2009 |
| Washington, DC DC | 4.4% | 1 of 35 years | 2009 |
| Seattle WA | 3.7% | 2 of 24 years | 2017 |
| Albuquerque NM | 3.6% | 0 of 35 years | none in this record |
| Portland OR | 3.5% | 2 of 35 years | 2017 |
| Raleigh NC | 2.3% | 0 of 35 years | none in this record |
| El Paso TX | 1.5% | 0 of 27 years | none in this record |
| Atlanta GA | 1.4% | 0 of 32 years | none in this record |
| Charlotte NC | 1.4% | 0 of 35 years | none in this record |
| Memphis TN | 1.4% | 2 of 35 years | 2004 |
| Nashville TN | 1.3% | 1 of 27 years | 2010 |
| Dallas TX | 0.5% | 1 of 28 years | 2009 |
| Las Vegas NV | 0.3% | 0 of 35 years | none in this record |
| Birmingham AL | 0.1% | 0 of 35 years | none in this record |
| San Antonio TX | 0.1% | 0 of 31 years | none in this record |
| Austin TX | 0.0% | 0 of 35 years | none in this record |
| Houston TX | 0.0% | 0 of 35 years | none in this record |
| Jacksonville FL | 0.0% | 0 of 35 years | none in this record |
| New Orleans LA | 0.0% | 0 of 28 years | none in this record |
| Tucson AZ | 0.0% | 0 of 34 years | none in this record |
| Boston MA | not published | too few readings | |
| Phoenix AZ | not published | 0 of 34 years | none in this record |
| Sacramento CA | not published | too few readings | |
| San Francisco CA | not published | too few readings |
NOAA's chance is the share of days with 1 inch or more on the ground in a 29-day window centred on December 25, so it describes late December. The count is the day itself, at the same station, over the years with a snow-depth reading; a station with fewer than 20 is not counted.
United Kingdom
The Met Office counts a white Christmas when a single snowflake is observed falling during the 24 hours of December 25, by one of its observers or automatic weather stations anywhere in the UK. Snow does not have to settle, and snow already lying from earlier days does not count.
By that rule one station is enough. The Met Office recorded snow falling at 11% of its stations on Christmas Day 2023, 9% in 2022 and 6% in both 2021 and 2020, so all four count. No station recorded snow falling in 2018 or 2019.
Snow lying on the ground is much rarer. The Met Office lists only four widespread white Christmases since 1960 (snow on the ground at more than 40% of stations at 9 am): 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010. In 2010 snow lay at 83% of stations, the most on record.
Since 1960, around half of years have had at least 5% of Met Office stations record snow falling on Christmas Day. The deepest snow on Christmas Day was 47 cm at Kindrogan, Perthshire, in 1981.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
The Met Office decides this for the whole UK, so there are no official odds for a single city. Each city page has the rule, the record, its December frost average where an open station is near, and the Met Office forecast link:
Aberdeen · Belfast · Birmingham · Bristol · Cardiff · Edinburgh · Glasgow · Inverness · Leeds · Liverpool · London · Manchester · Newcastle upon Tyne · Nottingham · Sheffield
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (daily normal DLY-SNWD-PCTALL-GE001WI, the figure behind NOAA's white Christmas map); December 25 snow depth and snowfall from each station's daily record via RCC ACIS; the National Weather Service API. Public domain. Met Office, white Christmas, Open Government Licence v3.0. Christmas records compiled 2026-10-18.
No bookmaker odds. This site does not predict snow.
Will it snow? This week's forecast by city
Questions
What counts as a white Christmas in the UK?
The Met Office counts a white Christmas when a single snowflake is observed falling during the 24 hours of December 25, by one of its observers or automatic weather stations anywhere in the UK. Snow does not have to settle, and snow already lying from earlier days does not count. One snowflake anywhere in the UK is enough.
What counts as a white Christmas in the US?
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25, measured once a day at the weather station. Snow falling that day is not needed, and a dusting of less than an inch does not count.
Which US city is most likely to have a white Christmas?
Of the 40 US cities here, Minneapolis has the highest chance in NOAA's 1991–2020 normals: 74% for at least 1 inch of snow on the ground around December 25. Each city page also counts the Christmas Days from 1991 to 2025 that actually had snow on the ground at its station.
When was the last white Christmas in the UK?
By the Met Office rule, 2023, when 11% of its stations recorded snow falling; its page, last reviewed in October 2025, gives no figure for 2024. The last widespread white Christmas, with snow lying at 83% of stations, was 2010.
When will the forecast for Christmas 2026 be known?
Forecasts reach about 7 days ahead. From December 18, 2026 the US pages show the National Weather Service forecast for Christmas Eve night and Christmas Day, and the UK pages link the Met Office forecast, which covers Christmas Day from then.
Are these betting odds?
No. The US chances are NOAA's 1991–2020 climate normals and counts of past Christmas Days at each city's official station. The UK figures are the Met Office's own records. Nothing here comes from a bookmaker.