Natural disaster risk in Toole County, Montana
Montana · population 4,971 · FIPS 30101
Overall: very low risk
Toole County has a composite risk score of 13.0 out of 100 — higher than 13% of US counties. It ranks 37 of 56 in Montana (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are cold wave, winter weather, drought.
Drought now: No: no drought or dryness
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Toole County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 4 weeks in a row.
Drought in Toole County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Very low 13 |
| Expected annual loss About $4.5 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 10.8 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 64.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 19.8 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Toole County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 76 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 42 |
| Drought | Relatively low 39 |
| Wildfire | Very low 47 |
| Earthquake | Very low 29 |
| Landslide | Very low 24 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Very low 17 |
| Strong wind | Very low 12 |
| Heat wave | Very low 11 |
| Lightning | Very low 9 |
| Avalanche | Very low 7 |
| Ice storm | Very low 6 |
| Hail | Very low 3 |
| Tornado | Very low 3 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Toole County
Federal declarations that designated Toole County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Toole County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4801-MT (Severe Winter Storm and Flooding), declared 18 Jul 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4801-MT | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding | 18 Jul 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Montana, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Toole County, Montana?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Toole County as very low, with a score of 13.0 out of 100 (higher than 13% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Toole County?
The hazards rated highest for Toole County are cold wave (relatively moderate), winter weather (relatively low), drought (relatively low).
What is the flood risk in Toole County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Toole County as very low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Toole County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Toole County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4801-MT (Severe Winter Storm and Flooding), declared 18 Jul 2024.
Is Toole County in a drought?
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Toole County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 4 weeks in a row.
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