Natural disaster risk in Elkhart County, Indiana
Indiana · population 206,994 · FIPS 18039
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Elkhart County has a composite risk score of 83.7 out of 100 — higher than 83% of US counties. It ranks 7 of 92 in Indiana (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are strong wind, cold wave, tornado.
Drought now: No: no drought or dryness
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Elkhart County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 31 weeks in a row.
Drought in Elkhart County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 83.7 |
| Expected annual loss About $49.3 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 83.4 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively moderate 45.3 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 61.1 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Elkhart County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively high 95 |
| Cold wave | Relatively high 94 |
| Tornado | Relatively high 90 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 93 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 84 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 66 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 61 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 77 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 72 |
| Drought | Relatively low 47 |
| Hurricane | Very low 47 |
| Landslide | Very low 45 |
| Wildfire | Very low 32 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Elkhart County
Federal declarations that designated Elkhart County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Elkhart County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3641-IN (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3641-IN | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Indiana, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Elkhart County, Indiana?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Elkhart County as relatively moderate, with a score of 83.7 out of 100 (higher than 83% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Elkhart County?
The hazards rated highest for Elkhart County are strong wind (relatively high), cold wave (relatively high), tornado (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Elkhart County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Elkhart County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Elkhart County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Elkhart County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3641-IN (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
Is Elkhart County in a drought?
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Elkhart County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 31 weeks in a row.
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