Natural disaster risk in San Juan County, Utah
Utah · population 14,449 · FIPS 49037
Overall: very low risk
San Juan County has a composite risk score of 26.8 out of 100 — higher than 26% of US counties. It ranks 15 of 29 in Utah (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are landslide, avalanche, winter weather.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, at least 54 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 95.14% of San Juan County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in San Juan County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Very low 26.8 |
| Expected annual loss About $5.0 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 13.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very high 91.4 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 1 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in San Juan County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively high 98 |
| Avalanche | Relatively high 89 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 82 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 81 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 82 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 78 |
| Drought | Relatively low 56 |
| Earthquake | Very low 55 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Very low 23 |
| Ice storm | Very low 22 |
| Volcanic activity | Very low 20 |
| Strong wind | Very low 6 |
| Tornado | Very low 5 |
| Cold wave | Very low 2 |
| Hail | Very low 2 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for San Juan County
Federal declarations that designated San Juan County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. San Juan County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5598-UT (Deer Creek Fire), declared 12 Jul 2025.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5598-UT | Fire management | Deer Creek Fire | 12 Jul 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Utah, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in San Juan County, Utah?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in San Juan County as very low, with a score of 26.8 out of 100 (higher than 26% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in San Juan County?
The hazards rated highest for San Juan County are landslide (relatively high), avalanche (relatively high), winter weather (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in San Juan County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in San Juan County as very low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has San Juan County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. San Juan County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5598-UT (Deer Creek Fire), declared 12 Jul 2025.
Is San Juan County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 95.14% of San Juan County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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