Natural disaster risk in Randall County, Texas
Texas · population 140,728 · FIPS 48381
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Randall County has a composite risk score of 86.8 out of 100 — higher than 86% of US counties. It ranks 28 of 254 in Texas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are winter weather, hail, drought.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 30 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 7.89% of Randall County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 30 weeks in a row. In all, 61.74% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Randall County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 86.8 |
| Expected annual loss About $70.4 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 87.9 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 25.3 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 56 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Randall County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Winter weather | Very high 99 |
| Hail | Relatively high 99 |
| Drought | Relatively high 97 |
| Tornado | Relatively high 96 |
| Strong wind | Relatively high 95 |
| Cold wave | Relatively high 89 |
| Wildfire | Relatively moderate 95 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 73 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 73 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 73 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 66 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 58 |
| Landslide | Very low 24 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | No rating |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Randall County
Federal declarations that designated Randall County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Randall County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5633-TX (Hunggate Fire), declared 14 May 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5633-TX | Fire management | Hunggate Fire | 14 May 2026 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Texas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Randall County, Texas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Randall County as relatively moderate, with a score of 86.8 out of 100 (higher than 86% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Randall County?
The hazards rated highest for Randall County are winter weather (very high), hail (relatively high), drought (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Randall County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Randall County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Randall County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Randall County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5633-TX (Hunggate Fire), declared 14 May 2026.
Is Randall County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 7.89% of Randall County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 30 weeks in a row. In all, 61.74% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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