Natural disaster risk in Medina County, Texas
Texas · population 49,586 · FIPS 48325
Overall: relatively low risk
Medina County has a composite risk score of 68.7 out of 100 — higher than 68% of US counties. It ranks 84 of 254 in Texas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are drought, lightning, strong wind.
Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 2 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 9.39% of Medina County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 2 weeks in a row. In all, 95.77% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Medina County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 68.7 |
| Expected annual loss About $20.5 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 61.6 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 75.1 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 18.3 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Medina County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively high 90 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 87 |
| Strong wind | Relatively high 85 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 85 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 77 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 72 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 85 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 74 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 60 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 59 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 39 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 30 |
| Landslide | Very low 52 |
| Earthquake | Very low 14 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Medina County
Federal declarations that designated Medina County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Medina County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3649-TX (Flooding), declared 18 Jul 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3649-TX | Emergency | Flooding | 18 Jul 2026 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Texas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Medina County, Texas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Medina County as relatively low, with a score of 68.7 out of 100 (higher than 68% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Medina County?
The hazards rated highest for Medina County are drought (relatively high), lightning (relatively high), strong wind (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Medina County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Medina County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Medina County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Medina County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3649-TX (Flooding), declared 18 Jul 2026.
Is Medina County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 9.39% of Medina County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 2 weeks in a row. In all, 95.77% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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