Natural disaster risk in McLennan County, Texas
Texas · population 260,302 · FIPS 48309
Overall: relatively moderate risk
McLennan County has a composite risk score of 91.2 out of 100 — higher than 91% of US counties. It ranks 20 of 254 in Texas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are lightning, tornado, cold wave.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 6 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of McLennan County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 6 weeks in a row.
Drought in McLennan County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 91.2 |
| Expected annual loss About $84.5 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 89.3 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 65.4 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 78.6 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in McLennan County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | Very high 96 |
| Tornado | Relatively high 98 |
| Cold wave | Relatively high 96 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 96 |
| Wildfire | Relatively moderate 90 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 89 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 88 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 72 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 66 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 81 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 64 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 58 |
| Drought | Relatively low 55 |
| Landslide | Very low 38 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for McLennan County
Federal declarations that designated McLennan County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names McLennan County.
All FEMA declarations in Texas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in McLennan County, Texas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in McLennan County as relatively moderate, with a score of 91.2 out of 100 (higher than 91% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in McLennan County?
The hazards rated highest for McLennan County are lightning (very high), tornado (relatively high), cold wave (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in McLennan County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in McLennan County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has McLennan County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names McLennan County.
Is McLennan County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of McLennan County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 6 weeks in a row.
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