Natural disaster risk in Johnson County, Texas
Texas · population 179,719 · FIPS 48251
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Johnson County has a composite risk score of 86.7 out of 100 — higher than 86% of US counties. It ranks 29 of 254 in Texas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are tornado, wildfire, heat wave.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 6 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 4.38% of Johnson County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 6 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Johnson County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 86.7 |
| Expected annual loss About $70.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 87.9 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 23.2 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 55.5 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Johnson County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Tornado | Relatively high 98 |
| Wildfire | Relatively moderate 94 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 92 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 88 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 85 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 81 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 77 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 76 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 39 |
| Drought | Relatively low 37 |
| Hurricane | Very low 53 |
| Earthquake | Very low 50 |
| Landslide | Very low 15 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Johnson County
Federal declarations that designated Johnson County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Johnson County.
All FEMA declarations in Texas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Johnson County, Texas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Johnson County as relatively moderate, with a score of 86.7 out of 100 (higher than 86% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Johnson County?
The hazards rated highest for Johnson County are tornado (relatively high), wildfire (relatively moderate), heat wave (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Johnson County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Johnson County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Johnson County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Johnson County.
Is Johnson County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 4.38% of Johnson County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 6 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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