Natural disaster risk in Denton County, Texas
Texas · population 906,057 · FIPS 48121
Overall: relatively high risk
Denton County has a composite risk score of 96.9 out of 100 — higher than 96% of US counties. It ranks 10 of 254 in Texas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are hail, tornado, ice storm.
Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 6 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 20.87% of Denton County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 6 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Denton County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively high 96.9 |
| Expected annual loss About $354.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively high 98.3 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very low 10.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively low 37.2 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Denton County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Hail | Very high 99 |
| Tornado | Very high 99 |
| Ice storm | Very high 97 |
| Heat wave | Relatively high 97 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively high 95 |
| Cold wave | Relatively high 93 |
| Strong wind | Relatively high 92 |
| Winter weather | Relatively high 86 |
| Wildfire | Relatively moderate 92 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 73 |
| Drought | Relatively low 36 |
| Hurricane | Very low 58 |
| Landslide | Very low 47 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Denton County
Federal declarations that designated Denton County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Denton County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), declared 17 May 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4781-TX | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 17 May 2024 | Yes |
All FEMA declarations in Texas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Denton County, Texas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Denton County as relatively high, with a score of 96.9 out of 100 (higher than 96% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Denton County?
The hazards rated highest for Denton County are hail (very high), tornado (very high), ice storm (very high).
What is the flood risk in Denton County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Denton County as relatively high. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Denton County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Denton County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), declared 17 May 2024.
Is Denton County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 20.87% of Denton County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 6 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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