Natural disaster risk in Caldwell County, Texas
Texas · population 45,866 · FIPS 48055
Overall: relatively low risk
Caldwell County has a composite risk score of 79.8 out of 100 — higher than 79% of US counties. It ranks 53 of 254 in Texas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are strong wind, inland (riverine) flooding, hail.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 3 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Caldwell County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 3 weeks in a row.
Drought in Caldwell County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 79.8 |
| Expected annual loss About $33.0 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 75.1 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 64.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 9 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Caldwell County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively high 84 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 87 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 86 |
| Drought | Relatively moderate 85 |
| Tornado | Relatively moderate 82 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 67 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 63 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 74 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 68 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 60 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 54 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 41 |
| Earthquake | Very low 19 |
| Landslide | Very low 14 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Caldwell County
Federal declarations that designated Caldwell County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Caldwell County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), declared 17 May 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4781-TX | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 17 May 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Texas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Caldwell County, Texas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Caldwell County as relatively low, with a score of 79.8 out of 100 (higher than 79% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Caldwell County?
The hazards rated highest for Caldwell County are strong wind (relatively high), inland (riverine) flooding (relatively moderate), hail (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Caldwell County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Caldwell County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Caldwell County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Caldwell County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), declared 17 May 2024.
Is Caldwell County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Caldwell County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 3 weeks in a row.
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