Natural disaster risk in Josephine County, Oregon
Oregon · population 88,032 · FIPS 41033
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Josephine County has a composite risk score of 90.2 out of 100 — higher than 90% of US counties. It ranks 10 of 36 in Oregon (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are wildfire, earthquake, inland (riverine) flooding.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 28 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 17.72% of Josephine County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 28 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Josephine County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 90.2 |
| Expected annual loss About $70.0 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 87.8 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 66.4 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 49.8 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Josephine County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively high 99 |
| Earthquake | Relatively moderate 95 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 90 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 89 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 85 |
| Lightning | Relatively low 29 |
| Avalanche | Very low 45 |
| Hail | Very low 18 |
| Drought | Very low 14 |
| Ice storm | Very low 13 |
| Volcanic activity | Very low 12 |
| Strong wind | Very low 11 |
| Tornado | Very low 4 |
| Cold wave | Very low 3 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Josephine County
Federal declarations that designated Josephine County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Josephine County has been named in 2 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5670-OR (Fielder Mountain Fire), declared 14 Aug 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5670-OR | Fire management | Fielder Mountain Fire | 14 Aug 2026 | No |
| DR-4881-OR | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides | 22 Jul 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Oregon, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Josephine County, Oregon?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Josephine County as relatively moderate, with a score of 90.2 out of 100 (higher than 90% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Josephine County?
The hazards rated highest for Josephine County are wildfire (relatively high), earthquake (relatively moderate), inland (riverine) flooding (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Josephine County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Josephine County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Josephine County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Josephine County has been named in 2 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5670-OR (Fielder Mountain Fire), declared 14 Aug 2026.
Is Josephine County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 17.72% of Josephine County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 28 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Every county in Oregon, ranked · All states · Disasters near me