Natural disaster risk in Jefferson County, Oregon
Oregon · population 24,472 · FIPS 41031
Overall: very low risk
Jefferson County has a composite risk score of 29.9 out of 100 — higher than 29% of US counties. It ranks 30 of 36 in Oregon (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are wildfire, lightning, volcanic activity.
Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 23 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 89.85% of Jefferson County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 23 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Jefferson County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Very low 29.9 |
| Expected annual loss About $10.4 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 36.4 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 28.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively low 31.1 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Jefferson County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively moderate 94 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 68 |
| Volcanic activity | Relatively low 87 |
| Avalanche | Relatively low 72 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 64 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 46 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 36 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 31 |
| Landslide | Very low 42 |
| Hail | Very low 33 |
| Heat wave | Very low 21 |
| Ice storm | Very low 19 |
| Drought | Very low 18 |
| Strong wind | Very low 13 |
| Tornado | Very low 2 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Jefferson County
Federal declarations that designated Jefferson County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Jefferson County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5655-OR (Rowe Creek Fire Complex), declared 31 Jul 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5655-OR | Fire management | Rowe Creek Fire Complex | 31 Jul 2026 | No |
| FM-5647-OR | Fire management | Akawa Butte Fire | 23 Jul 2026 | No |
| FM-5610-OR | Fire management | Flat Fire | 23 Aug 2025 | No |
| FM-5589-OR | Fire management | Alder Springs Fire | 17 Jun 2025 | No |
| FM-5528-OR | Fire management | Elk Lane Fire | 6 Aug 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Oregon, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Jefferson County, Oregon?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Jefferson County as very low, with a score of 29.9 out of 100 (higher than 29% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The hazards rated highest for Jefferson County are wildfire (relatively moderate), lightning (relatively moderate), volcanic activity (relatively low).
What is the flood risk in Jefferson County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Jefferson County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Jefferson County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Jefferson County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5655-OR (Rowe Creek Fire Complex), declared 31 Jul 2026.
Is Jefferson County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 89.85% of Jefferson County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 23 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Every county in Oregon, ranked · All states · Disasters near me