Natural disaster risk in Deschutes County, Oregon
Oregon · population 197,964 · FIPS 41017
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Deschutes County has a composite risk score of 84.9 out of 100 — higher than 84% of US counties. It ranks 14 of 36 in Oregon (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are wildfire, avalanche, lightning.
Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 17 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 58.53% of Deschutes County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 17 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Deschutes County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 84.9 |
| Expected annual loss About $66.1 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 87.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very low 18.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 69.1 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Deschutes County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively high 97 |
| Avalanche | Relatively high 88 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 87 |
| Winter weather | Relatively high 86 |
| Volcanic activity | Relatively moderate 96 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 88 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 66 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 83 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 81 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 54 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 54 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 43 |
| Drought | Very low 15 |
| Tornado | Very low 8 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Deschutes County
Federal declarations that designated Deschutes County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Deschutes County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5647-OR (Akawa Butte Fire), declared 23 Jul 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5647-OR | Fire management | Akawa Butte Fire | 23 Jul 2026 | No |
| FM-5610-OR | Fire management | Flat Fire | 23 Aug 2025 | No |
| FM-5527-OR | Fire management | Mile Marker 132 Fire | 2 Aug 2024 | No |
| FM-5500-OR | Fire management | Darlene 3 Fire | 25 Jun 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Oregon, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Deschutes County, Oregon?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Deschutes County as relatively moderate, with a score of 84.9 out of 100 (higher than 84% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Deschutes County?
The hazards rated highest for Deschutes County are wildfire (relatively high), avalanche (relatively high), lightning (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Deschutes County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Deschutes County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Deschutes County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Deschutes County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5647-OR (Akawa Butte Fire), declared 23 Jul 2026.
Is Deschutes County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 58.53% of Deschutes County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 17 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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