Natural disaster risk in Pawnee County, Oklahoma
Oklahoma · population 15,493 · FIPS 40117
Overall: relatively low risk
Pawnee County has a composite risk score of 48.1 out of 100 — higher than 48% of US counties. It ranks 46 of 77 in Oklahoma (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are ice storm, drought, cold wave.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 10 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 43.37% of Pawnee County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 10 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Pawnee County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 48.1 |
| Expected annual loss About $11.2 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 39.8 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 77.4 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively low 27.8 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Pawnee County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Ice storm | Relatively high 92 |
| Drought | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 77 |
| Tornado | Relatively moderate 70 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 60 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 86 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 73 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 71 |
| Hail | Relatively low 69 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 49 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 35 |
| Earthquake | Very low 32 |
| Hurricane | Very low 13 |
| Lightning | Very low 12 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Pawnee County
Federal declarations that designated Pawnee County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Pawnee County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4866-OK (Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds), declared 21 May 2025.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4866-OK | Major disaster | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds | 21 May 2025 | Yes |
| FM-5572-OK | Fire management | 328 Fire | 19 Mar 2025 | No |
| FM-5568-OK | Fire management | Barn Fire | 15 Mar 2025 | No |
| FM-5567-OK | Fire management | Keystone Fire | 15 Mar 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Oklahoma, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Pawnee County, Oklahoma?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Pawnee County as relatively low, with a score of 48.1 out of 100 (higher than 48% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Pawnee County?
The hazards rated highest for Pawnee County are ice storm (relatively high), drought (relatively moderate), cold wave (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Pawnee County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Pawnee County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Pawnee County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Pawnee County has been named in 4 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4866-OK (Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds), declared 21 May 2025.
Is Pawnee County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 43.37% of Pawnee County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 10 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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