Natural disaster risk in McKenzie County, North Dakota
North Dakota · population 14,685 · FIPS 38053
Overall: very low risk
McKenzie County has a composite risk score of 25.0 out of 100 — higher than 25% of US counties. It ranks 17 of 53 in North Dakota (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are winter weather, cold wave, hail.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 23 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 72.03% of McKenzie County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 23 weeks in a row. In all, 95.66% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in McKenzie County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Very low 25 |
| Expected annual loss About $11.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 41.1 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very low 10.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 43.7 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in McKenzie County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively high 87 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 70 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 77 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 50 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 33 |
| Drought | Relatively low 31 |
| Lightning | Relatively low 25 |
| Landslide | Very low 49 |
| Heat wave | Very low 19 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Very low 15 |
| Earthquake | Very low 7 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for McKenzie County
Federal declarations that designated McKenzie County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. McKenzie County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4852-ND (Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds), declared 24 Dec 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4852-ND | Major disaster | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds | 24 Dec 2024 | No |
| FM-5541-ND | Fire management | Elk Horn Fire | 6 Oct 2024 | No |
| FM-5540-ND | Fire management | Bear Den Fire | 6 Oct 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in North Dakota, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in McKenzie County, North Dakota?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in McKenzie County as very low, with a score of 25.0 out of 100 (higher than 25% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in McKenzie County?
The hazards rated highest for McKenzie County are winter weather (relatively high), cold wave (relatively moderate), hail (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in McKenzie County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in McKenzie County as very low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has McKenzie County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. McKenzie County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4852-ND (Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds), declared 24 Dec 2024.
Is McKenzie County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 72.03% of McKenzie County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 23 weeks in a row. In all, 95.66% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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