Natural disaster risk in Barnes County, North Dakota
North Dakota · population 10,821 · FIPS 38003
Overall: relatively low risk
Barnes County has a composite risk score of 45.9 out of 100 — higher than 45% of US counties. It ranks 10 of 53 in North Dakota (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are winter weather, cold wave, hail.
Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 7 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 0.1% of Barnes County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 7 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Barnes County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 45.9 |
| Expected annual loss About $12.6 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 44.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 60.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 76.8 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Barnes County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively high 92 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 85 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 84 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 81 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 73 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 65 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 41 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 41 |
| Landslide | Very low 52 |
| Drought | Very low 24 |
| Heat wave | Very low 19 |
| Lightning | Very low 10 |
| Earthquake | Very low 5 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Barnes County
Federal declarations that designated Barnes County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Barnes County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4895-ND (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes), declared 22 Oct 2025.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4895-ND | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes | 22 Oct 2025 | No |
| DR-4888-ND | Major disaster | Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds | 11 Sep 2025 | No |
| DR-4760-ND | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds | 15 Feb 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in North Dakota, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Barnes County, North Dakota?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Barnes County as relatively low, with a score of 45.9 out of 100 (higher than 45% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Barnes County?
The hazards rated highest for Barnes County are winter weather (relatively high), cold wave (relatively moderate), hail (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Barnes County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Barnes County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Barnes County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Barnes County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4895-ND (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes), declared 22 Oct 2025.
Is Barnes County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 0.1% of Barnes County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 7 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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