Natural disaster risk in Erie County, New York
New York · population 954,005 · FIPS 36029
Overall: relatively high risk
Erie County has a composite risk score of 97.7 out of 100 — higher than 97% of US counties. It ranks 5 of 62 in New York (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are cold wave, winter weather, inland (riverine) flooding.
Drought now: No, but abnormally dry (D0)
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 96.03% of Erie County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for 3 weeks in a row.
Drought in Erie County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively high 97.7 |
| Expected annual loss About $286.0 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively high 97.4 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively moderate 47.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very high 95.3 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Erie County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Cold wave | Very high 99 |
| Winter weather | Very high 99 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively high 99 |
| Tornado | Relatively high 95 |
| Ice storm | Relatively high 93 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 86 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 95 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 85 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 71 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively low 44 |
| Hail | Relatively low 41 |
| Drought | Relatively low 35 |
| Wildfire | Very low 62 |
| Landslide | Very low 52 |
| Avalanche | Very low 23 |
| Tsunami | Insufficient data |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Erie County
Federal declarations that designated Erie County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Erie County.
All FEMA declarations in New York, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Erie County, New York?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Erie County as relatively high, with a score of 97.7 out of 100 (higher than 97% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Erie County?
The hazards rated highest for Erie County are cold wave (very high), winter weather (very high), inland (riverine) flooding (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Erie County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Erie County as relatively high, and coastal flooding risk as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Erie County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Erie County.
Is Erie County in a drought?
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 96.03% of Erie County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for 3 weeks in a row.
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