Natural disaster risk in San Juan County, New Mexico
New Mexico · population 121,421 · FIPS 35045
Overall: relatively moderate risk
San Juan County has a composite risk score of 88.3 out of 100 — higher than 88% of US counties. It ranks 3 of 33 in New Mexico (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are drought, lightning, winter weather.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, at least 54 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 75.13% of San Juan County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row. In all, 92.69% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in San Juan County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 88.3 |
| Expected annual loss About $44.1 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 81.6 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very high 91.5 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 5.3 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in San Juan County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively high 99 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 96 |
| Winter weather | Relatively high 89 |
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 93 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 92 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 87 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 83 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 81 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 38 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 23 |
| Avalanche | Very low 26 |
| Tornado | Very low 22 |
| Hail | Very low 15 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for San Juan County
Federal declarations that designated San Juan County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. San Juan County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4795-NM (South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding), declared 20 Jun 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4795-NM | Major disaster | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding | 20 Jun 2024 | Yes |
All FEMA declarations in New Mexico, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in San Juan County, New Mexico?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in San Juan County as relatively moderate, with a score of 88.3 out of 100 (higher than 88% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in San Juan County?
The hazards rated highest for San Juan County are drought (relatively high), lightning (relatively high), winter weather (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in San Juan County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in San Juan County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has San Juan County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. San Juan County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4795-NM (South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding), declared 20 Jun 2024.
Is San Juan County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 75.13% of San Juan County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row. In all, 92.69% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Every county in New Mexico, ranked · All states · Disasters near me