Natural disaster risk in Otero County, New Mexico
New Mexico · population 67,699 · FIPS 35035
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Otero County has a composite risk score of 84.7 out of 100 — higher than 84% of US counties. It ranks 7 of 33 in New Mexico (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are wildfire, lightning, winter weather.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 30 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 23.57% of Otero County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 30 weeks in a row. In all, 74.79% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Otero County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 84.7 |
| Expected annual loss About $43.3 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 81.3 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 63.5 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 4.9 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Otero County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively high 98 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 92 |
| Winter weather | Relatively high 92 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 88 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Drought | Relatively moderate 76 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 75 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 68 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 68 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 38 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 24 |
| Earthquake | Very low 55 |
| Volcanic activity | Very low 49 |
| Avalanche | Very low 37 |
| Hurricane | Very low 23 |
| Tornado | Very low 11 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Otero County
Federal declarations that designated Otero County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Otero County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides), declared 22 Jul 2025.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4886-NM | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides | 22 Jul 2025 | No |
| EM-3628-NM | Emergency | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides | 10 Jul 2025 | No |
| DR-4795-NM | Major disaster | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding | 20 Jun 2024 | Yes |
| FM-5498-NM | Fire management | Salt Fire | 18 Jun 2024 | No |
| FM-5497-NM | Fire management | South Fork Fire | 17 Jun 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in New Mexico, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Otero County, New Mexico?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Otero County as relatively moderate, with a score of 84.7 out of 100 (higher than 84% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Otero County?
The hazards rated highest for Otero County are wildfire (relatively high), lightning (relatively high), winter weather (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Otero County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Otero County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Otero County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Otero County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides), declared 22 Jul 2025.
Is Otero County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 23.57% of Otero County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 30 weeks in a row. In all, 74.79% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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