Natural disaster risk in Lincoln County, New Mexico

New Mexico · population 20,041 · FIPS 35027

Overall: relatively low risk

Lincoln County has a composite risk score of 79.5 out of 100 — higher than 79% of US counties. It ranks 12 of 33 in New Mexico (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are wildfire, winter weather, lightning.

Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 10 weeks

Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 26.65% of Lincoln County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 10 weeks in a row. In all, 99.68% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).

Drought in Lincoln County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu

The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.

Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience

Measure	Rating and score
Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience.	Relatively low 79.5
Expected annual loss About $27.8 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards.	Relatively low 70.7
Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover.	Very high 82.5
Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover.	Very low 7.2

Risk by hazard

FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Lincoln County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.

Hazard	Risk rating and score
Wildfire	Relatively high 98
Winter weather	Relatively high 86
Lightning	Relatively high 85
Inland (riverine) flooding	Relatively moderate 77
Ice storm	Relatively moderate 68
Landslide	Relatively low 76
Hail	Relatively low 39
Volcanic activity	Very low 47
Avalanche	Very low 37
Earthquake	Very low 25
Drought	Very low 17
Strong wind	Very low 16
Hurricane	Very low 14
Cold wave	Very low 11
Tornado	Very low 10
Heat wave	Very low 7
Coastal flooding	Not applicable
Tsunami	Not applicable

FEMA disaster declarations for Lincoln County

Federal declarations that designated Lincoln County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.

Yes. Lincoln County has been named in 6 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides), declared 22 Jul 2025.

Declaration	Kind	Incident	Declared	Individual assistance here
DR-4886-NM	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides	22 Jul 2025	Yes
EM-3628-NM	Emergency	Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides	10 Jul 2025	No
DR-4795-NM	Major disaster	South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding	20 Jun 2024	Yes
FM-5498-NM	Fire management	Salt Fire	18 Jun 2024	No
FM-5497-NM	Fire management	South Fork Fire	17 Jun 2024	No
FM-5492-NM	Fire management	Blue 2 Fire	26 May 2024	No

All FEMA declarations in New Mexico, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.

How to read these ratings

Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
"Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).

About this data

Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.

Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Lincoln County, New Mexico?

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Lincoln County as relatively low, with a score of 79.5 out of 100 (higher than 79% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.

What are the biggest natural hazards in Lincoln County?

The hazards rated highest for Lincoln County are wildfire (relatively high), winter weather (relatively high), lightning (relatively high).

What is the flood risk in Lincoln County?

FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Lincoln County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.

Has Lincoln County had a FEMA disaster declaration?

Yes. Lincoln County has been named in 6 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides), declared 22 Jul 2025.

Is Lincoln County in a drought?

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