Natural disaster risk in Cole County, Missouri
Missouri · population 76,989 · FIPS 29051
Overall: relatively low risk
Cole County has a composite risk score of 73.4 out of 100 — higher than 73% of US counties. It ranks 27 of 115 in Missouri (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are ice storm, heat wave, tornado.
Drought now: Yes: D1 Moderate Drought, 1 week
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 0.04% of Cole County is in D1 Moderate Drought. Some of it has been at D1 or worse for 1 week so far.
Drought in Cole County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 73.4 |
| Expected annual loss About $42.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 81.1 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very low 12.2 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very high 88.6 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Cole County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Ice storm | Relatively high 90 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 94 |
| Tornado | Relatively moderate 84 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 76 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 73 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 73 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 82 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 78 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 71 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 56 |
| Hail | Relatively low 48 |
| Drought | Relatively low 39 |
| Hurricane | Very low 17 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Cole County
Federal declarations that designated Cole County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Cole County.
All FEMA declarations in Missouri, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Cole County, Missouri?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Cole County as relatively low, with a score of 73.4 out of 100 (higher than 73% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Cole County?
The hazards rated highest for Cole County are ice storm (relatively high), heat wave (relatively moderate), tornado (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Cole County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Cole County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Cole County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Cole County.
Is Cole County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 0.04% of Cole County is in D1 Moderate Drought. Some of it has been at D1 or worse for 1 week so far.
Every county in Missouri, ranked · All states · Disasters near me