Natural disaster risk in Dakota County, Minnesota
Minnesota · population 439,810 · FIPS 27037
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Dakota County has a composite risk score of 89.5 out of 100 — higher than 89% of US counties. It ranks 4 of 87 in Minnesota (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are strong wind, hail, tornado.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 10 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 65.2% of Dakota County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 10 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Dakota County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 89.5 |
| Expected annual loss About $133.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 93.3 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very low 10.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very high 92.5 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Dakota County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Strong wind | Very high 99 |
| Hail | Relatively high 97 |
| Tornado | Relatively high 97 |
| Winter weather | Relatively high 91 |
| Cold wave | Relatively high 90 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 84 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 88 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 84 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 70 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 55 |
| Drought | Relatively low 31 |
| Wildfire | Very low 39 |
| Earthquake | Very low 21 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Dakota County
Federal declarations that designated Dakota County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Dakota County.
All FEMA declarations in Minnesota, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Dakota County, Minnesota?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Dakota County as relatively moderate, with a score of 89.5 out of 100 (higher than 89% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Dakota County?
The hazards rated highest for Dakota County are strong wind (very high), hail (relatively high), tornado (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Dakota County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Dakota County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Dakota County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Dakota County.
Is Dakota County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 65.2% of Dakota County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 10 weeks in a row. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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