Natural disaster risk in Frederick County, Maryland
Maryland · population 271,433 · FIPS 24021
Overall: relatively low risk
Frederick County has a composite risk score of 74.2 out of 100 — higher than 74% of US counties. It ranks 6 of 24 in Maryland (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are winter weather, lightning, heat wave.
Drought now: Yes: D1 Moderate Drought, 53 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 86.13% of Frederick County is in D1 Moderate Drought. Some of it has been at D1 or worse for 53 weeks in a row.
Drought in Frederick County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 74.2 |
| Expected annual loss About $49.9 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 83.6 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very low 10.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 77.8 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Frederick County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Winter weather | Relatively high 90 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 82 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 85 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 81 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 74 |
| Drought | Relatively moderate 72 |
| Tornado | Relatively moderate 67 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 79 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 74 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 66 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 53 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 32 |
| Wildfire | Very low 27 |
| Avalanche | Very low 21 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Frederick County
Federal declarations that designated Frederick County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Frederick County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3634-MD (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3634-MD | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Maryland, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Frederick County, Maryland?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Frederick County as relatively low, with a score of 74.2 out of 100 (higher than 74% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Frederick County?
The hazards rated highest for Frederick County are winter weather (relatively high), lightning (relatively high), heat wave (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Frederick County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Frederick County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Frederick County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Frederick County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3634-MD (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
Is Frederick County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 86.13% of Frederick County is in D1 Moderate Drought. Some of it has been at D1 or worse for 53 weeks in a row.
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