Natural disaster risk in Warren County, Kentucky
Kentucky · population 134,482 · FIPS 21227
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Warren County has a composite risk score of 88.5 out of 100 — higher than 88% of US counties. It ranks 5 of 120 in Kentucky (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are hail, tornado, ice storm.
Drought now: Yes: D1 Moderate Drought, 3 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Warren County is in D1 Moderate Drought. Some of it has been at D1 or worse for 3 weeks in a row.
Drought in Warren County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 88.5 |
| Expected annual loss About $79.9 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 88.8 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 30.1 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 68.4 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Warren County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Hail | Very high 99 |
| Tornado | Relatively high 93 |
| Ice storm | Relatively high 90 |
| Earthquake | Relatively moderate 90 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 87 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 82 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 78 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 75 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 75 |
| Drought | Relatively low 43 |
| Hurricane | Very low 44 |
| Landslide | Very low 36 |
| Wildfire | Very low 18 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Warren County
Federal declarations that designated Warren County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Warren County has been named in 6 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3633-KY | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| DR-4875-KY | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes | 23 May 2025 | No |
| DR-4864-KY | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides | 24 Apr 2025 | Yes |
| EM-3626-KY | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 3 Apr 2025 | No |
| EM-3624-KY | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides | 16 Feb 2025 | No |
| DR-4804-KY | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides | 23 Jul 2024 | Yes |
All FEMA declarations in Kentucky, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Warren County, Kentucky?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Warren County as relatively moderate, with a score of 88.5 out of 100 (higher than 88% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Warren County?
The hazards rated highest for Warren County are hail (very high), tornado (relatively high), ice storm (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Warren County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Warren County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Warren County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Warren County has been named in 6 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
Is Warren County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Warren County is in D1 Moderate Drought. Some of it has been at D1 or worse for 3 weeks in a row.
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