Natural disaster risk in Madison County, Kentucky

Kentucky · population 92,690 · FIPS 21151

Overall: relatively low risk

Madison County has a composite risk score of 74.8 out of 100 — higher than 74% of US counties. It ranks 15 of 120 in Kentucky (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are lightning, strong wind, winter weather.

Drought now: No, but abnormally dry (D0)

No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Madison County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for 3 weeks in a row.

Drought in Madison County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu

The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.

Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience

Measure	Rating and score
Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience.	Relatively low 74.8
Expected annual loss About $36.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards.	Relatively low 77.8
Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover.	Relatively low 28.5
Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover.	Relatively high 62.3

Risk by hazard

FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Madison County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.

Hazard	Risk rating and score
Lightning	Relatively high 94
Strong wind	Relatively high 88
Winter weather	Relatively high 85
Tornado	Relatively moderate 85
Cold wave	Relatively moderate 83
Hail	Relatively moderate 82
Inland (riverine) flooding	Relatively moderate 75
Ice storm	Relatively moderate 72
Earthquake	Relatively low 76
Heat wave	Relatively low 61
Wildfire	Very low 52
Hurricane	Very low 50
Landslide	Very low 48
Avalanche	Very low 25
Drought	Very low 20
Coastal flooding	Not applicable
Tsunami	Not applicable
Volcanic activity	Not applicable

FEMA disaster declarations for Madison County

Federal declarations that designated Madison County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.

Yes. Madison County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4937-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), declared 1 Sep 2026.

Declaration	Kind	Incident	Declared	Individual assistance here
DR-4937-KY	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides	1 Sep 2026	No
EM-3633-KY	Emergency	Severe Winter Storm	24 Jan 2026	No
DR-4864-KY	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides	24 Apr 2025	No
EM-3626-KY	Emergency	Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding	3 Apr 2025	No
EM-3624-KY	Emergency	Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides	16 Feb 2025	No

All FEMA declarations in Kentucky, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.

How to read these ratings

Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
"Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).

About this data

Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.

Questions

What is the natural disaster risk in Madison County, Kentucky?

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Madison County as relatively low, with a score of 74.8 out of 100 (higher than 74% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.

What are the biggest natural hazards in Madison County?

The hazards rated highest for Madison County are lightning (relatively high), strong wind (relatively high), winter weather (relatively high).

What is the flood risk in Madison County?

FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Madison County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.

Has Madison County had a FEMA disaster declaration?

Yes. Madison County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4937-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), declared 1 Sep 2026.

Is Madison County in a drought?

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