Natural disaster risk in Harlan County, Kentucky
Kentucky · population 26,728 · FIPS 21095
Overall: relatively low risk
Harlan County has a composite risk score of 65.7 out of 100 — higher than 65% of US counties. It ranks 28 of 120 in Kentucky (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are strong wind, landslide, inland (riverine) flooding.
Drought now: No: no drought or dryness
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Harlan County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 3 weeks in a row.
Drought in Harlan County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 65.7 |
| Expected annual loss About $17.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 56.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 80 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 13.7 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Harlan County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively high 86 |
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 90 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 73 |
| Avalanche | Relatively low 75 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 69 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 65 |
| Hail | Relatively low 47 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 39 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 39 |
| Earthquake | Very low 56 |
| Hurricane | Very low 42 |
| Ice storm | Very low 24 |
| Lightning | Very low 16 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Drought | No rating |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Harlan County
Federal declarations that designated Harlan County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Harlan County has been named in 6 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3633-KY | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| EM-3626-KY | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 3 Apr 2025 | No |
| DR-4860-KY | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides | 24 Feb 2025 | Yes |
| EM-3624-KY | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides | 16 Feb 2025 | No |
| DR-4848-KY | Major disaster | Remnants of Hurricane Helene | 26 Nov 2024 | No |
| DR-4804-KY | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides | 23 Jul 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Kentucky, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Harlan County, Kentucky?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Harlan County as relatively low, with a score of 65.7 out of 100 (higher than 65% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Harlan County?
The hazards rated highest for Harlan County are strong wind (relatively high), landslide (relatively moderate), inland (riverine) flooding (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Harlan County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Harlan County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Harlan County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Harlan County has been named in 6 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
Is Harlan County in a drought?
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Harlan County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 3 weeks in a row.
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