Natural disaster risk in Carter County, Kentucky
Kentucky · population 26,602 · FIPS 21043
Overall: relatively low risk
Carter County has a composite risk score of 52.7 out of 100 — higher than 52% of US counties. It ranks 43 of 120 in Kentucky (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are landslide, heat wave, inland (riverine) flooding.
Drought now: No: no drought or dryness
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Carter County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 16 weeks in a row.
Drought in Carter County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 52.7 |
| Expected annual loss About $14.2 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 48.9 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 61.6 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 11.8 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Carter County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 89 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 86 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 69 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 58 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 47 |
| Lightning | Relatively low 41 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 40 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 38 |
| Wildfire | Very low 58 |
| Earthquake | Very low 42 |
| Hurricane | Very low 36 |
| Hail | Very low 31 |
| Cold wave | Very low 19 |
| Drought | Very low 15 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Carter County
Federal declarations that designated Carter County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Carter County has been named in 6 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3633-KY | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| DR-4864-KY | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides | 24 Apr 2025 | No |
| EM-3626-KY | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 3 Apr 2025 | No |
| EM-3624-KY | Emergency | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides | 16 Feb 2025 | No |
| DR-4848-KY | Major disaster | Remnants of Hurricane Helene | 26 Nov 2024 | No |
| DR-4782-KY | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides | 22 May 2024 | Yes |
All FEMA declarations in Kentucky, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Carter County, Kentucky?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Carter County as relatively low, with a score of 52.7 out of 100 (higher than 52% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Carter County?
The hazards rated highest for Carter County are landslide (relatively moderate), heat wave (relatively moderate), inland (riverine) flooding (relatively low).
What is the flood risk in Carter County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Carter County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Carter County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Carter County has been named in 6 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
Is Carter County in a drought?
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Carter County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 16 weeks in a row.
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