Natural disaster risk in Winnebago County, Illinois
Illinois · population 285,162 · FIPS 17201
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Winnebago County has a composite risk score of 92.4 out of 100 — higher than 92% of US counties. It ranks 8 of 102 in Illinois (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are cold wave, hail, strong wind.
Drought now: No: no drought or dryness
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Winnebago County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 3 weeks in a row.
Drought in Winnebago County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 92.4 |
| Expected annual loss About $121.6 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 92.5 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 38.9 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 68.5 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Winnebago County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Cold wave | Relatively high 97 |
| Hail | Relatively high 97 |
| Strong wind | Relatively high 97 |
| Tornado | Relatively high 97 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively high 94 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 89 |
| Ice storm | Relatively high 85 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 85 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 84 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 79 |
| Drought | Relatively low 57 |
| Landslide | Very low 50 |
| Wildfire | Very low 32 |
| Hurricane | Very low 20 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Winnebago County
Federal declarations that designated Winnebago County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Winnebago County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4819-IL (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Floodng), declared 20 Sep 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4819-IL | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Floodng | 20 Sep 2024 | Yes |
All FEMA declarations in Illinois, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Winnebago County, Illinois?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Winnebago County as relatively moderate, with a score of 92.4 out of 100 (higher than 92% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Winnebago County?
The hazards rated highest for Winnebago County are cold wave (relatively high), hail (relatively high), strong wind (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Winnebago County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Winnebago County as relatively high. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Winnebago County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Winnebago County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4819-IL (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Floodng), declared 20 Sep 2024.
Is Winnebago County in a drought?
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Winnebago County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 3 weeks in a row.
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