Natural disaster risk in Maui County, Hawaii
Hawaii · population 164,632 · FIPS 15009
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Maui County has a composite risk score of 93.1 out of 100 — higher than 93% of US counties. It ranks 3 of 5 in Hawaii (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are volcanic activity, lightning, inland (riverine) flooding.
Drought now: No: no drought or dryness
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Maui County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 5 weeks in a row.
Drought in Maui County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 93.1 |
| Expected annual loss About $132.2 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 93.3 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively moderate 41.3 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very high 86.4 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Maui County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Volcanic activity | Relatively high 98 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 93 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively high 93 |
| Tsunami | Relatively high 90 |
| Earthquake | Relatively moderate 97 |
| Wildfire | Relatively moderate 95 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 69 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively low 54 |
| Landslide | Very low 55 |
| Drought | Very low 19 |
| Tornado | Very low 5 |
| Ice storm | Very low 3 |
| Hail | Very low 2 |
| Strong wind | Very low 1 |
| Winter weather | Very low 1 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Cold wave | No rating |
| Heat wave | No rating |
FEMA disaster declarations for Maui County
Federal declarations that designated Maui County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Maui County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4952-HI (Hurricane Lowell), declared 7 Oct 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4952-HI | Major disaster | Hurricane Lowell | 7 Oct 2026 | No |
| DR-4951-HI | Major disaster | Hurricane Lala | 7 Oct 2026 | No |
| EM-3654-HI | Emergency | Tropical Storm Nolo | 25 Sep 2026 | No |
| DR-4909-HI | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides | 7 Apr 2026 | Yes |
| FM-5613-HI | Fire management | Holomua Fire | 23 Sep 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Hawaii, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Maui County, Hawaii?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Maui County as relatively moderate, with a score of 93.1 out of 100 (higher than 93% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Maui County?
The hazards rated highest for Maui County are volcanic activity (relatively high), lightning (relatively high), inland (riverine) flooding (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Maui County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Maui County as relatively high, and coastal flooding risk as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Maui County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Maui County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4952-HI (Hurricane Lowell), declared 7 Oct 2026.
Is Maui County in a drought?
No. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, no part of Maui County is in drought or abnormally dry (none of D0 to D4). That has been so for 5 weeks in a row.
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