Natural disaster risk in Duval County, Florida
Florida · population 994,675 · FIPS 12031
Overall: relatively high risk
Duval County has a composite risk score of 97.2 out of 100 — higher than 97% of US counties. It ranks 12 of 67 in Florida (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are lightning, cold wave, hurricane.
Drought now: No, but abnormally dry (D0)
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 69.05% of Duval County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
Drought in Duval County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively high 97.2 |
| Expected annual loss About $263.9 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively high 97 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 39.9 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively high 62.1 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Duval County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | Very high 98 |
| Cold wave | Relatively high 98 |
| Hurricane | Relatively high 97 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively high 97 |
| Hail | Relatively high 96 |
| Heat wave | Relatively high 96 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively high 91 |
| Tornado | Relatively high 91 |
| Earthquake | Relatively moderate 90 |
| Wildfire | Relatively moderate 89 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 81 |
| Landslide | Very low 41 |
| Drought | Very low 21 |
| Ice storm | Very low 17 |
| Winter weather | Very low 7 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Insufficient data |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Duval County
Federal declarations that designated Duval County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Duval County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4834-FL (Hurricane Milton), declared 11 Oct 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4834-FL | Major disaster | Hurricane Milton | 11 Oct 2024 | Yes |
| EM-3622-FL | Emergency | Hurricane Milton | 7 Oct 2024 | No |
| DR-4828-FL | Major disaster | Hurricane Helene | 28 Sep 2024 | Yes |
| DR-4806-FL | Major disaster | Hurricane Debby | 10 Aug 2024 | No |
| EM-3605-FL | Emergency | Tropical Storm Debby | 3 Aug 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Florida, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Duval County, Florida?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Duval County as relatively high, with a score of 97.2 out of 100 (higher than 97% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Duval County?
The hazards rated highest for Duval County are lightning (very high), cold wave (relatively high), hurricane (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Duval County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Duval County as relatively high, and coastal flooding risk as relatively high. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Duval County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Duval County has been named in 5 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is DR-4834-FL (Hurricane Milton), declared 11 Oct 2024.
Is Duval County in a drought?
No drought, but abnormally dry. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 69.05% of Duval County is D0 Abnormally Dry and none of it is in drought (D1 to D4). Some of it has been abnormally dry or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row.
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