Natural disaster risk in Mesa County, Colorado
Colorado · population 155,647 · FIPS 08077
Overall: relatively low risk
Mesa County has a composite risk score of 75.1 out of 100 — higher than 75% of US counties. It ranks 13 of 64 in Colorado (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are lightning, landslide, avalanche.
Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 30 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 47.82% of Mesa County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 30 weeks in a row. In all, 97.03% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Mesa County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 75.1 |
| Expected annual loss About $34.7 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 76.3 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 37 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 56.7 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Mesa County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | Very high 97 |
| Landslide | Relatively high 99 |
| Avalanche | Relatively high 90 |
| Wildfire | Relatively moderate 89 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 81 |
| Drought | Relatively moderate 73 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 68 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 84 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 59 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 33 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 30 |
| Hail | Very low 21 |
| Volcanic activity | Very low 18 |
| Tornado | Very low 17 |
| Strong wind | Very low 10 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Mesa County
Federal declarations that designated Mesa County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Mesa County.
All FEMA declarations in Colorado, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Mesa County, Colorado?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Mesa County as relatively low, with a score of 75.1 out of 100 (higher than 75% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Mesa County?
The hazards rated highest for Mesa County are lightning (very high), landslide (relatively high), avalanche (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Mesa County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Mesa County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Mesa County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Mesa County.
Is Mesa County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 47.82% of Mesa County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 30 weeks in a row. In all, 97.03% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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