Natural disaster risk in Kern County, California
California · population 908,530 · FIPS 06029
Overall: relatively high risk
Kern County has a composite risk score of 98.9 out of 100 — higher than 98% of US counties. It ranks 15 of 58 in California (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are earthquake, heat wave, wildfire.
Drought now: Yes: D1 Moderate Drought, 4 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 4.06% of Kern County is in D1 Moderate Drought. Some of it has been at D1 or worse for 4 weeks in a row.
Drought in Kern County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively high 98.9 |
| Expected annual loss About $417.0 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively high 98.7 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively high 61.1 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 6.5 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Kern County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively high 99 |
| Heat wave | Relatively high 99 |
| Wildfire | Relatively high 99 |
| Landslide | Relatively high 98 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively high 98 |
| Drought | Relatively high 94 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 84 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 82 |
| Hail | Relatively low 67 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 45 |
| Volcanic activity | Very low 59 |
| Avalanche | Very low 46 |
| Tornado | Very low 19 |
| Cold wave | Very low 3 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | Not applicable |
| Ice storm | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Kern County
Federal declarations that designated Kern County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Kern County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5522-CA (Borel Fire), declared 27 Jul 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5522-CA | Fire management | Borel Fire | 27 Jul 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in California, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Kern County, California?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Kern County as relatively high, with a score of 98.9 out of 100 (higher than 98% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Kern County?
The hazards rated highest for Kern County are earthquake (relatively high), heat wave (relatively high), wildfire (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Kern County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Kern County as relatively high. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Kern County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Kern County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5522-CA (Borel Fire), declared 27 Jul 2024.
Is Kern County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 4.06% of Kern County is in D1 Moderate Drought. Some of it has been at D1 or worse for 4 weeks in a row.
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