Natural disaster risk in Union County, Arkansas
Arkansas · population 39,006 · FIPS 05139
Overall: relatively low risk
Union County has a composite risk score of 53.9 out of 100 — higher than 53% of US counties. It ranks 39 of 75 in Arkansas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are ice storm, heat wave, strong wind.
Drought now: Yes: D4 Exceptional Drought, 1 week
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 69.84% of Union County is in D4 Exceptional Drought. Some of it has been at D4 for 1 week so far. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Union County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 53.9 |
| Expected annual loss About $12.6 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 44.3 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very high 84.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Relatively moderate 56.6 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Union County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Ice storm | Very high 97 |
| Heat wave | Relatively moderate 84 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 78 |
| Tornado | Relatively moderate 69 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 64 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 77 |
| Hurricane | Relatively low 59 |
| Hail | Relatively low 55 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 51 |
| Drought | Relatively low 31 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 29 |
| Landslide | Very low 48 |
| Wildfire | Very low 27 |
| Cold wave | Very low 21 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Union County
Federal declarations that designated Union County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Union County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5673-AR (Pine Tree Road Fire), declared 21 Aug 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5673-AR | Fire management | Pine Tree Road Fire | 21 Aug 2026 | No |
| EM-3636-AR | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| EM-3627-AR | Emergency | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 5 Apr 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Arkansas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Union County, Arkansas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Union County as relatively low, with a score of 53.9 out of 100 (higher than 53% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Union County?
The hazards rated highest for Union County are ice storm (very high), heat wave (relatively moderate), strong wind (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Union County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Union County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Union County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Union County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5673-AR (Pine Tree Road Fire), declared 21 Aug 2026.
Is Union County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 69.84% of Union County is in D4 Exceptional Drought. Some of it has been at D4 for 1 week so far. In all, 100% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Every county in Arkansas, ranked · All states · Disasters near me