Natural disaster risk in Lincoln County, Arkansas
Arkansas · population 12,931 · FIPS 05079
Overall: very low risk
Lincoln County has a composite risk score of 29.8 out of 100 — higher than 29% of US counties. It ranks 66 of 75 in Arkansas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are drought, ice storm, earthquake.
Drought now: Yes: D3 Extreme Drought, 29 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Lincoln County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 29 weeks in a row.
Drought in Lincoln County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Very low 29.8 |
| Expected annual loss About $6.8 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very low 20.9 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very high 80.5 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 16.7 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Lincoln County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively high 90 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 68 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 79 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 65 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 53 |
| Hail | Relatively low 45 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 43 |
| Hurricane | Very low 57 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Very low 24 |
| Lightning | Very low 23 |
| Winter weather | Very low 22 |
| Cold wave | Very low 18 |
| Landslide | Very low 16 |
| Wildfire | Very low 16 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Lincoln County
Federal declarations that designated Lincoln County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Lincoln County has been named in 2 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3636-AR | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| EM-3627-AR | Emergency | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 5 Apr 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Arkansas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Lincoln County, Arkansas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Lincoln County as very low, with a score of 29.8 out of 100 (higher than 29% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The hazards rated highest for Lincoln County are drought (relatively high), ice storm (relatively moderate), earthquake (relatively low).
What is the flood risk in Lincoln County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Lincoln County as very low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Lincoln County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Lincoln County has been named in 2 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
Is Lincoln County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 100% of Lincoln County is in D3 Extreme Drought. Some of it has been at D3 or worse for 29 weeks in a row.
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